Doprinos poduzeća Royal Dutch Shell oblikovanju analize scenarija

master's thesis

• Title (english): Royal Dutch Shell contribution to the development of scenario analysis
• Author: Ana Bašić
• Mentor: Andrija Sabol (mentor)
• Committee member: Denis Dolinar (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Davor Zoričić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Managerial Economics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2019-12-18, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics

Abstract

Visoka razina neizvjesnosti i kompleksnosti koja obilježava današnji svijet potaknula je donositelje odluka na razvoj alata i metoda koji će omogućiti lakše upravljanje neizvjesnošću. Analiza scenarija pokazala se kao koristan alat za definiranje alternativnih verzija budućnosti što omogućava minimiziranje negativnih posljedica neplaniranih događaja te iznenadnih kriza. Analiza scenarija razlikuje se od prognoziranja jer scenariji neizvjesnosti prepoznaju kao neizbježne događaje, te iste analiziraju kroz istraživanje njihovih uzroka, razumijevanje povezanih događaja te sučeljavanje različitih verzija potencijalnih budućnosti. Royal Dutch Shell kao naftna kompanija bila je predvodnik u implementaciji scenarijske analize, a sve do danas scenarijska analiza ostala je jedna od ključnih komparativnih prednosti kompanije te čini sastavni dio strateškog planiranja. Globalizacija, ubrzani razvoj tehnologije, nepredvidljivost, kompleksnost ekonomskih sustava te dramatične posljedice klimatskih promjena predstavljaju izazove ne samo za Shell grupu, već i za cjelokupno gospodarstvo, a upotrebom scenarijskih tehnika kompanije mogu neočekivane promjene preobratiti u očekivane i pravovremeno oblikovati odgovore na buduće izazove.

Abstract (english)

The high level of uncertainty and complexity that characterizes today's world has prompted decision-makers to develop tools and methods that will help manage uncertainty more easily. Scenario analysis has proven to be a useful tool for defining alternative versions of the future, minimizing the negative consequences of unplanned events and sudden crises. Scenario analysis differs from forecasting because it recognizes uncertainty scenarios as inevitable events and analyzes them by exploring their causes, understanding related events and confronting different versions of potential futures. Royal Dutch Shell, as an energy company, has been a leader in the implementation of scenario analysis and to this day scenario analysis has remained one of the key comparative strengths of the company and forms an integral part of their strategic planning. Globalization, accelerated technology development, unpredictability, the complexity of economic systems and the dramatic consequences of climate change present challenges not only for the Shell Group but for the entire global economy. By using scenario techniques, companies can turn unexpected changes into expected and timely responses to future challenges.

• Keywords: analiza scenarija; Royal Dutch Shell; budućnost; strateško planiranje; neizvjesnost; upravljanje neizvjesnošću
• Keywords (english): scenario analysis; Royal Dutch Shell; future; strategic planning; uncertainty; uncertainty management
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:334795
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to authenticated users
• Created on: 2019-12-18 13:12:29