Dugoročna perspektiva osobnih ulaganja u uvjetima promijenjene monetarno-ekonomske paradigme

master's thesis

• Title (english): Long term perspective of personal investing in circumstances of a changed monetary-economic paradigm
• Author: Ivan Jaman
• Mentor: Marijana Ivanov (mentor); MBZ: 210365
• Committee member: Martina Solenički (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Dajana Barbić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Finance); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2020-09-21, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Finance

Abstract

Implementacijom nekonvencionalnih mjera označena je promijenjena monetarno-ekonomske paradigma. U radu je napravljen pregled nekonvencionalnih mjera poput negativnih kamatnih stopa, različitih programa pružanja likvidnosti i otkupa vrijednosnica, te eksplicitnog komuniciranja smjera kretanja monetarne politike. Razlozi implementacije mjera su poteškoće u transmisijskom kanalu i stvaranje dodatnog prostor za ekspanzivnu monetarnu politiku. Uz navedeno u radu je sagledan utjecaj strukturnih trendova sekularne stagnacije i demografskih promjena. Teoretsko analitički okvir rada proizlazi iz dugoročnih učinaka nekonvencionalnih mjera i strukturnih trendova. Na temelju toga proizašao je temeljni cilj rada koji se bavi pitanjem kako planirati i upravljati osobnim ulaganjima s obzirom na učinke promijenjene monetarno-ekonomske paradigme. Za ostvarivanje ciljeva rada koristile su se metoda analize, sinteze, kompilacije, metoda indukcije i dedukcije, te metoda klasifikacije i deskripcije. U radu su isključivo konceptualno promotreni učinci promijenjene monetarno ekonomske paradigme jer se u potpunosti manifestiraju u dugom roku. Trenutni učinci su na inflaciju cijena i niske prinose u različitim kategorijama imovine te distorzija vremenske preferencije. Uz trenutne učinke postoji izgledni potencijal za slab rast dohotka i BDP-a u dugom roku. Na temelju toga je pokazana izrada štedno ulagačkog plana koji se temelj na konceptu ulaganja u intrinzične vrijednosti. U radu su opisane karakteristike takvog koncepta ulaganja koji se temelji na procjeni stvarne cijene imovine na temelju fundamentalne stvarnosti i buduće koristi od imovine. Takav model ulaganja i portfelj temeljen na različitim scenarijima rizika najprikladniji su za primjenu u opisanim okolnostima jer se temelje na dokazanima trajnim principima investiranja, poduzetničkom pristupu neizvjesnosti i otpornosti na kratkoročne tržišne okolnosti investiranja.

Abstract (english)

The implementation of unconventional monetary measures marked a change in monetary-economic paradigm. This paper provides an overview of unconventional measures such as negative interest rates, various liquidity provisions and securities repurchase programs, and explicit forward guidance. The reasons such measures were implemented are difficulties in the transmission channel and providing additional room for expansionary monetary policy. The paper also briefly examines the impact of structural trends of secular stagnation and demographic changes. The theoretical and analytical framework of the paper is derived from the long-term effects of unconventional measures and structural trends. Based on this, a fundamental goal of the paper is to addresses the question of how to plan and manage personal investments given the effects of the changed monetary-economic paradigm. Analytical and research methods used in this paper are analysis, synthesis, compilation, the method of induction and deduction, the method of classification and description. In this paper effects of the changed monetary-economic paradigm are only conceptually observed because the effects are fully materialized primarily in the long run. Price inflation and low yields in different asset categories and distortion of time preferences are currently observed effects, and there is a potential for income and GDP growth slowdown in the long run. Based on this the investor should develop savings and investment plan grounded in concept of value investing. The main characteristics of value investing approach is the assessment of prices based on the underlying fundamentals and future expected benefits from the asset. The main finding of the paper is that value investing approach incorporated in a portfolio based on different risk scenarios is the most suitable for application in the described circumstances because it is based on proven timeless principles of investing, entrepreneurial approach to uncertainty and resilience to short-term market settings.

• Keywords: nekonvencionalna monetarna politika; sekularna stagnacija; intrinzična vrijednost; ulaganje u intrinzičnu vrijednost; hipoteza efikasnog tržišta (EMH); osobna ulaganja
• Keywords (english): unconventional monetary policy; secular stagnation; intrinsic value; value investing; efficient market hypothesis (EMH); personal investing
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:439246
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to authenticated users
• Created on: 2020-09-22 11:46:41