Analiza fiskalnih pravila na nacionalnoj i nadnacionalnoj razini

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis of fiscal rules at the national and supranational level
• Author: Nikolina Brkljačić
• Mentor: Maja Mihelja Žaja (mentor); MBZ: 295693
• Committee member: Maja Mihelja Žaja (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Dajana Barbić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Gordana Kordić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-09-13, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics

Abstract

Fiskalna pravila su brojčana ograničenja za vođenje fiskalne politike te se njima određuju
makroekonomski fiskalni parametri. Početak njihova uvođenja bio je potpis Ugovora iz
Maastrichta koji je značio regulaciju fiskalnog položaja te nakon njega uvođenje Pakta o
stabilnosti i rastu. Koju vrstu fiskalnih pravila neka zemlja upotrebljava ovisi o tome koji
parametar ograničava, stoga to mogu biti pravila javnog duga, pravila strukturnog salda te
pravila prihoda ili rashoda. Mnoge zemlje važnost fiskalnih pravila spoznale su tek nakon
financijske krize 2008. godine te od tada njihova primjena raste. Također, primjena pravila
osobito je važna u današnje vrijeme obzirom da je cijeli svijet pogođen iznenadnom
koronakrizom zbog koje dugovi i deficiti zemalja naglo rastu.
Dakle, cilj ovog rada je analiza fiskalnih pravila na nacionalnoj razini te na nadnacionalnoj
razini, tj. na razini Europske unije. Analiza se sastoji od stanja javnog duga i deficita odabranih
zemalja do kraja 2019. godine te se nakon toga iznose predviđanja za kretanje javnog duga i
deficita u uvjetima koji su bili prije koronakrize. Predviđa se stanje dugova i deficita do kraja
2021. godine te se dobiveni rezultati uspoređuju s trenutno dostupnim podacima kako bi se
vidio negativan utjecaj koji virus ima na gospodarstva. Također, kako bi se vidjela fiskalna
uspješnost zemalja, analiziraju se i indeksi fiskalnih pravila.
Iz provedene analize fiskalnih pravila u zemljama Europske unije vidljivo je da trenutna
iznenadna kriza izazvana virusom COVID-19 ima utjecaj na sva gospodarstva. Iako je većina
članica imala pad javnog duga i deficita, ova kriza dovela je do njihova velikog i brzog rasta, a
rekordna razina za 2020. godinu ostvarena je u Grčkoj gdje je udio javnog duga u BDP-u
205,6%. Nadalje, nakon krize 2008. vidljiva je veća želja za fiskalnom disciplinom članica.
Indeksi fiskalnih pravila porasli su što znači da su zemlje članice uočile važnost fiskalnih
pravila za svoju dugoročnu stabilnost i fiskalnu održivost.

Abstract (english)

Fiscal rules are numerical limits on budgetary aggregates which determine macroeconomic
fiscal parameters. Signing of the Maastricht Treaty and later on Stability and Growth Pact was
the beginning of their use. Selection of the parameter a country wants to restrict determines
what type of fiscal rule that country uses. Those fiscal rules are debt rules, budget balance rules,
revenue or expenditure rules. After the global financial crisis in 2008, many countries realized
the importance of fiscal rules application. Consequently, their application has been increasing
ever since. Nowadays when the whole world is affected by the corona crisis, which is causing
countries' deficits and debts to go up, proper use of fiscal rules is crucial.
Therefore, the aim of this paper is to analyze fiscal rules at the national and supranational level,
i. e. at the European Union level. The analysis consists of the public debt and deficit balance of
selected countries from 2015 until the end of 2019. Based on this, debt and deficit forecast
trends are made as if the corona crisis had not happened. Public debt and deficit balance is
predicted until the end of 2021 and the obtained results are compared with currently available
data in order to see the negative impact that the virus has had on economies. Moreover, fiscal
rule index is analyzed in order to see countries' fiscal performance.
The analysis of fiscal rules in the European Union countries clearly shows that the current
corona crisis highly impacted all economies. Although most country members' public debt and
deficit was declining in recent years, this crisis has led to their rapid rise. Greece was especially
affected by the crisis - public debt to GDP ratio reached the peak of 205.6%. Furthermore, the
fiscal rule index has risen after the global financial crisis in 2008 which means that member
countries have recognized the benefits of fiscal rules application to their long-term stability and
fiscal sustainability.

• Keywords: fiskalna pravila; Ugovor iz Maastrichta; Pakt o stabilnosti i rastu; neovisne fiskalne institucije; indeks fiskalnih pravila; koronakriza
• Keywords (english): fiscal rules; Maastricht Treaty; Stability and Growth Pact; independent fiscal institutions; fiscal rule index (FRI); corona crisis
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:590502
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2021-09-21 16:11:06