Analiza rizika zemlje

master's thesis

• Title (english): Country risk analysis
• Author: Petra Šešerko
• Mentor: Martina Solenički (mentor); MBZ: 323420
• Committee member: Nika Šimurina (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Maja Mihelja Žaja (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Finance); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-09-29, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Finance

Abstract

U diplomskom radu analiziraju se metodologije procjene rizika zemlje od strane rejting agencija Moody's, Fitch i Organizacije za ekonomsku suradnju i razvoj (OECD). Ciljevi rada su sistematizirati indikatore političkog i ekonomskog rizika koji utječu na ocjenu rizika zemlje, kritički sagledati različite metode određivanja rizika zemlje i utvrditi njihove prednosti i nedostatke, identificirati ključne odrednice rizika zemlje Republike Hrvatske te projicirati kretanje ocjene rizika zemlje Republike Hrvatske u budućnosti. U radu je obuhvaćena analiza indikatora političkog i ekonomskog rizika Republike Hrvatske. Prikazano je kretanje ocjene rizika zemlje Republike Hrvatske kroz povijest te položaj Republike Hrvatske s obzirom na ostatak zemalja Europske unije. Temeljem povijesnog kretanja rizika zemlje Republike Hrvatske te temeljem analize indikatora političkog i ekonomskog rizika, napravljena je projekcija budućeg kretanja rizika zemlje Republike Hrvatske. Visoki javni dug, sposobnost vlade, siromaštvo, nezaposlenost i ovisnost o turizmu indikatori su s najvećim utjecajem na ocjenu rizika Republike Hrvatske.

Abstract (english)

The graduate thesis analyses the methodologies of the country's risk assessment by rating agencies Moody's, Fitch and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The aims of the thesis are: systematize indicators of political and economic risk that influence the country's risk assessment, provide a critical review of the country risk methodologies to identify their advantages and disadvantages, identify key country risk determinants of the Republic of Croatia and to make a projection of the future risk of the Republic of Croatia. The thesis presents an analysis of the indicators of political and economic risks of the Republic of Croatia. The thesis further shows how the country risk of Republic of Croatia has changed throughout history and what is the position of the Republic of Croatia regard to the rest of the EU. Based on the historical country risk trends of the Republic of Croatia and based on the analysis of the political and economic risk indicators, a projection of the future country risk movement of the Republic of Croatia is made. High public debt, government ability, poverty, unemployment and dependence on tourism are indicators that most influence the country risk assessment of the Republic of Croatia.

• Keywords: rizik zemlje; ekonomski rizik; politički rizik; Hrvatska
• Keywords (english): country risk; economic risk; political risk; Croatia
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:781260
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2021-09-30 17:48:21