Utjecaj pandemije Covid 19 i krize u Ukrajini na cijene naftnih derivata

graduate thesis

• Title (english): The impact of the Covid 19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine on the prices of petroleum products
• Author: Martina Lukenda
• Mentor: Tomislav Gelo (mentor)
• Committee member: Tomislav Gelo (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Jurica Šimurina (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Tomislav Sekur (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-02-07, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Macroeconomics

Abstract

U posljednje četiri godine, svijet su pogodile dvije velike krize: pandemija i rat. Obje krize su utjecale na živote ljudi, gospodarska kretanja i na energetska tržišta. Pandemija virusa Covid-19 eskalirala je brzo i usmrtila veliki broj ljudi. Kako bi se spriječile veće smrtne posljedice i širenje smrtonosnog i znanosti još nepoznatog virusa, vlade diljem svijeta proglasile su zatvaranje gospodarstva i društva te uvele rigorozne mjere. To je na globalnoj razini uvelike djelovalo na gospodarstva država diljem svijeta i dovelo do recesije te utjecalo na brojna tržišta. Druga kriza potaknuta je ruskim napadom na susjednu joj Ukrajinu, koja traje i dan danas. Osim što, kao i svaki rat, odnosi brojne ljudske živote, utječe na gospodarska kretanja pa tako i na tržišta roba i usluga na svjetskoj razini ali i na mnoge druge aspekte života.
Obje ove krize stvorile su nestabilnosti na energetskim tržištima pa tako i na tržištu nafte i naftnih derivata, svaka na svoj način. Svaka kriza pokazala je da je globalno tržište nafte jedno od najnepredvidljivijih tržišta te je gotovo nemoguće predvidjeti trend kretanja cijena bez obzira na prethodna iskustva. U razdoblju krize Covid 19 naftno tržište i u SAD-u i u EU doživjelo je osjetan pad cijena uzrokovan padom potražnje, pa je tako cijena u SAD-u u jednom danu dosegla čak i negativnu vrijednost, dok je EU osjetila samo značajan pad cijena. Kada je došlo do naglog otvaranja nakon jenjavanja prvog vala pandemije cijena je ponovno naglo rasla. Na značajan skok cijena svakako je utjecao rat u Ukrajini, odnosno sankcije EU da se oslabi Rusko gospodarstvo i Rusiji onemogući nastavak napada i okonča njena ofenziva na Ukrajinu. S obzirom da se ratu u Ukrajini ne nazire kraj, a u svijetu, u regijama koje su od izuzetne važnosti za tržište nafte, bukte novi sukobi i ratovi, budućnost tržišta nafte kao i njenih cijena izuzetno je nepredvidiva.

Abstract (english)

In last three years, the world was affected by two big crises. Pandemic and war. Both crises affected people’s lives, economic trends and energy markets. The pandemic of the Covid-19 virus escalated very fast and took a large amount of human lives. In order to prevent bigger fatal consequences and the spread od deathly virus which wasn’t familiar to science, governments around the world declared a lockdown and introduced rigorous measures. On a global level, this greatly affected the economies of countries around the world and led to a recession and affected many markets. The second crisis was triggered by the Russian attack on its neighbor Ukraine, which continues to this day. In addition to the fact that, like any war, it takes many human lives, affects economic trends and thus the markets of goods and services at the world level, but also on many other aspects of life.
Both of these crises created instability in the energy markets and also in the market of oil and oil derivatives, each in its own way During the period of the Covid 19 crisis, the oil market both in the USA and in the EU experienced a significant drop in prices caused by a drop in demand, so the price in the USA even reached a negative value in one day, while the EU only experienced a significant price drop. When there was a sudden opening after the subsidence of the first wave of the pandemic, the price rose sharply again. The significant jump in prices was certainly influenced by the war in Ukraine, i.e. EU sanctions to weaken the Russian economy and prevent Russia from continuing its attacks and ending its offensive against Ukraine. Given that there is no end in sight to the war in Ukraine, and new conflicts and wars are breaking out in the world, in regions that are extremely important for the oil market, the future of the oil market as well as its prices is extremely unpredictable

• Keywords: Covid 19; Rat u Ukrajini; nafta; naftni derivati; tržište nafte
• Keywords (english): Covid 19; war in Ukraine; oil; petroleum products
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:348360
• Study programme: Title: Economics of energy and environment; Study programme type: professional; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar ekonomije/magistra ekonomije (magistar ekonomije/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-02-07 23:33:44