Usporedba utjecaja strukture portfelja na prinose mirovinskih fondova u Hrvatskoj i odabranim europskim zemljama

master's thesis

• Title (english): Comparison of the impacts of portfolio structure on the returns of pension funds in Croatia and selected European countries
• Author: Tin Erceg
• Mentor: Tomislav Globan (mentor)
• Committee member: Antonija Buljan (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: August Cesarec (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Tomislav Globan (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Finance); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-02-27, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Finance

Abstract

Aktualne demografske promjene u svijetu stavljaju sve veći pritisak na proračune zemalja koje isplaćuju
mirovine svojim građanima. Sve više zemalja stavlja naglasak na potrebu za inovativnim pristupima politikama
i programima koji omogućuju prilagodbu društva novim demografskim uvjetima i stvaranje održivog temelja
za budućnost. U današnjem kompleksnom ekonomskom okruženju, mirovinski fondovi igraju ključnu ulogu u
osiguravanju financijske sigurnosti pojedinaca tijekom njihove starosti. U različitim zemljama svijeta
uspostavili su se različiti oblici mirovinskih sustava s različitom pratećom regulacijom koja često postavlja
ograničenja ulaganjima fonda u pojedine klase imovine. Cilj je mirovinskih fondova i regulacije očuvanje i
oplođivanje bogatstva mirovinskog osiguranika. Općenito je prihvaćeno da bi portfelji mirovinskih fondova
trebali postupno mijenjati strukturu ulaganja na način da se kako osiguranik stari, imovina prebacuje u sigurnije
instrumente. Kao siguran instrument najčešće se biraju državne obveznice i korporativne obveznice visokog
rejtinga. Međutim, razvijeno dioničko tržište je kroz povijest pokazalo moć u ostvarivanju takvih prinosa koji
u dugom roku jasno pobjeđuju prinose ostalih konvencionalnih klasa imovine. Prinosi dioničkog tržišta mogu
znatno povećati imovinu mirovinskog osiguranika kada je akumuliran veći iznos doprinosa. Stoga, ispravno
identificiranje trenutka do kojeg dionička imovina mora činiti značajan udio u portfelju, bez da se mirovina
osiguranika izloži prevelikom riziku u zadnjim godinama štednje, ali i bez izgubljenog potencijala dioničkog
tržišta, biti će ključna odrednica uspješnosti mirovinskih fondova. Mora se uzeti u obzir i činjenica da se
najveće dioničko tržište predstavljeno indeksom S&P 500, dosada oporavilo nakon svake krize i recesije u
povijesti te je nastavilo dosezati rekordne razine do vremena pisanja ovog rada. Napravljena je usporedna
analiza mirovinskih fondova u Republici Hrvatskoj, Slovačkoj i Kraljevini Švedskoj. Rezultati analize
pokazuju da postoji vrlo snažna pozitivna korelacija između udjela dionica u portfelju i prinosa portfelja, a
obratno s udjelom obveznica. Promjenama Zakona o obveznim mirovinskim fondovima od 1.1.2024. kreće se
u dobrom smjeru u pružanju više slobode mirovinskim fondovima.

Abstract (english)

Current demographic changes worldwide are putting increasing pressure on the budgets of countries that provide pensions to their citizens. More and more countries emphasize the need for innovative approaches to policies and programs that adapt society to new demographic conditions and create a sustainable foundation for the future. In today's complex economic environment, pension funds play a crucial role in ensuring financial security for individuals in their old age. Different countries around the world have established various forms of pension systems with different accompanying regulations that often impose restrictions on the fund's investments in specific asset classes. The goal of pension funds and regulations is to preserve and grow the wealth of pension plan participants. It is generally accepted that pension fund portfolios should gradually change their investment structure so that as the insured individual ages, assets are shifted to safer instruments. Government bonds and high-rated corporate bonds are most commonly chosen as safe instruments. However, the developed stock market has historically demonstrated the power to achieve returns that clearly outperform returns of other conventional asset classes in the long run. Stock market returns can significantly increase the wealth of pension plan participants when a larger amount of contributions is accumulated. Therefore, correctly identifying the moment until which equities must constitute a significant portion of the portfolio, without exposing the pension of the insured to excessive risk in the last years of saving, and without losing benefits of stock markets' high returns, will be a key determinant of the success of pension funds. It must be understood that the largest stock market represented by the S&P 500 index has recovered after every crisis and recession in history and has continued to reach record levels up to the time of writing this thesis. A comparative analysis of pension funds in the Republic of Croatia, Slovakia, and the Kingdom of Sweden was conducted. The results of the analysis show a very strong positive correlation between the share of equities in the portfolio and the portfolio returns, and vice versa with the share of bonds. Changes in the Croatian pension fund regulations from January 1st, 2024, are showing progress in providing more freedom to its pension funds.

• Keywords: mirovinski fondovi; struktura portfelja; regulacija; prinosi; dionice; obveznice; Republika Hrvatska; Kraljevina Švedska; Republika Slovačka
• Keywords (english): pension funds; portfolio structure; regulation; returns; equities; bonds; Republic of Croatia; Kingdom of Sweden; Republic of Slovakia
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:088732
• Study programme: Title: Business economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije (sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Reformatted digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-03-01 12:27:27