Utjecaj kibernetičkih incidenata na tržišnu vrijednost dionica poduzeća - primjena metode studije događaja

master's thesis

• Title (english): The influence of cyber incidents on the market value of company shares - application of the event study method
• Author: Hrvoje Plukavec
• Mentor: Denis Dolinar (mentor)
• Committee member: Denis Dolinar (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Andrija Sabol (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Ena Pecina (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Managerial Economics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-07-02, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; General Economy

Abstract

Kibernetički incidenti su gotovo svakodnevna pojava kako u poslovnom, tako i u privatnom okruženju. U vremenu digitalne ekonomije, digitalnog novca i konstantnog korištenja informacijsko-komunikacijskih tehnologija u gotovo svim segmentima ekonomije i poslovanja, prisutno je povećanje kibernetičkih incidenata uzrokovanih nelegalnim hakerskim napadima na svjetskoj razini, ali i na razini Republike Hrvatske. Povećanje prijetnji i potencijalnih negativnih posljedica je u 21. stoljeću sve više prepoznato od strane država i poduzeća, ali i od strane kupaca koji daju svoje povjerenje i podatke na korištenje tim institucijama. Poduzeća koja pretrpe kibernetički incident često trpe štete poput zaustavljanja proizvodnje i/ili drugih dijelova poslovanja, gubitka podataka, financijske i reputacijske štete te mnogih drugih negativnih posljedica. Cilj ovog istraživanja je promatranje utjecaja kibernetičkog incidenta na kratkoročne prinose dionica na primjeru poduzeća Petrokemija d.d. Predmet analize je kibernetički incident uzrokovan hakerskim napadom na Petrokemiju d.d. u rujnu 2021. godine i utjecaj na povjerenje investitora promatrajući promjene cijena dionica u kratkom roku. Metode koje su korištene u istraživanju temelje se na abnormalnim povratima gdje je uspoređena očekivana vrijednost prinosa na dionice sa stvarno ostvarenim prinosima u promatranom razdoblju. U svrhu isključivanja ostalih faktora koji imaju utjecaj na cijene dionica, napravljena je analiza hrvatskog gospodarstva i analiza samog poduzeća u predmetnom razdoblju. Testom signifikantnosti je utvrđeno da je predmetni incident imao utjecaj na promjene cijena dionica u razdoblju događaja.

Abstract (english)

Cyber incidents are an almost daily occurrence both in business and in the private environment. In the age of the digital economy, digital money and the constant use of information and communication technologies in almost all segments of the economy and business, there is an increase in cyber incidents caused by illegal hacker attacks, both worldwide and at the level of the Republic of Croatia. The increase in threats and potential negative consequences in the 21st century is more and more recognized by states and companies, but also by customers who give their trust and data to these institutions. Companies that suffer a cyber incident often suffer damages such as stopping production and/or other parts of the business, data loss, financial and reputational damage, and many other negative consequences. The goal of this research is to observe the impact of a cyber incident on short-term stock returns using the example of the company Petrokemija d.d. The subject of the analysis is a cyber incident caused by a hacker attack on Petrokemija d.d. in September 2021 and the impact on investor confidence by looking at changes in short-term stock prices. The methods used in the research are based on abnormal returns, where the expected value of return on shares was compared with the actual returns in the observed period. To exclude other factors that influence share prices, an analysis of the Croatian economy and an analysis of the company itself in the period in question was made. The significance test determined that the incident in question had an impact on stock price changes in the period of the event.

• Keywords: abnormalni povrat; kumulativni abnormalni povrat; studija događaja; kibernetički incident; cijena dionica
• Keywords (english): abnormal return; cumulative abnormal return; event study; cyber incident; share value
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:402965
• Study programme: Title: Business economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije (sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2024-07-02 17:03:54