Utjecaj kriza na tečajne režime post-tranzicijskih zemalja

master's thesis

• Title (english): Impact of crises on exchange rate regimes of post-transition countries
• Author: Marko Bagarić
• Mentor: Gordana Kordić (mentor)
• Committee member: Gordana Kordić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Marijana Ivanov (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Mile Bošnjak (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Finance); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-07-04, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Macroeconomics

Abstract

Svaka zemlja unutar svog monetarnog sustava mora se opredijeliti za jedan od tečajnih režima. Ona odabire tečajni režim iz jedne od triju skupina: fiksni režimi, intermedijarni režimi i fleksibilni tečajni režimi. Odabir tečajnog režima uvjetuje mogućnosti monetarne politike i središnje banke u uvjetima recesije. Temeljni cilj ovoga rada je usporediti tečajne režime u uvjetima ekonomskih kriza na primjerima 5 post-tranzicijskih zemalja: Bugarska, Češka, Hrvatska, Mađarska i Poljska. Na jednoj strani nalazi se Bugarska koja je fiksirala bugarski lev za euro unutar sustava valutnog odbora te Hrvatska koja je usmjeravala kretanje tečaja kune prema euru unutar uskih granica fluktuacije („kvazi valutni odbor“). Na drugoj strani su Češka, Mađarska i Poljska s fleksibilnim tečajnim režimima koje su pustile svoje valute da plivaju u odnosu na euro. Prolazi se kroz ograničenja svakog od tečajnih režima zasebno i instrumente monetarne politike koje je središnja banka imala na raspolaganju i koristila u vremenima kriza te time nastojala pomaknuti gospodarstvo prema gore. Na temelju usporedbe osnovnih makroekonomskih pokazatelja analizira se uspješnost izabranih tečajnih režima post-tranzicijskih zemalja. Promatraju se tri najrecentnije ekonomske krize: financijska kriza iz 2008. g. pa nadalje, COVID kriza iz 2020. g. te rat u Ukrajini iz 2022. godine.

Abstract (english)

Every country within it's monetary system must choose one of the exchange rate regimes. It selects an exchange rate regime from one of three groups: fixed regimes, intermediate regimes, and flexible exchange rate regimes. The choice of exchange rate regime conditions the possibilities of monetary policy and the central bank in times of recession. The main objective of this paper is to compare exchange rate regimes during economic crises using examples from five post-transition countries: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, and Poland. On one side, there is Bulgaria, which fixed the Bulgarian lev to the euro within a currency board system, and Croatia, which directed the movement of the kuna exchange rate towards the euro within narrow fluctuation margins ("quasi currency board"). On the other side are the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland with flexible exchange rate regimes, allowing their currencies to float against the euro. The paper examines the limitations of each exchange rate regime individually and the monetary policy instruments that the central bank had at its disposal and used during crises to try to boost the economy. The success of the chosen exchange rate regimes of post-transition countries is analyzed based on the comparison of key macroeconomic indicators. The three most recent economic crises are observed: the financial crisis from 2008. onwards, the COVID crisis in 2020., and the war in Ukraine in 2022. year.

• Keywords: tečajni režim; monetarna neovisnost; financijska kriza; COVID; rat u Ukrajini
• Keywords (english): exchange rate regime; monetary independence; financial crisis; COVID; war in Ukraine
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:947556
• Study programme: Title: Business economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije (sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-07-04 13:44:57