Analiza utjecaja neizvjesnosti uzrokovane energetskom krizom iz 2022. godine na dinamiku energetske tranzicije Europske unije

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis of the impact of uncertainty caused by the 2022 energy crisis on the dynamics of the European union energy transition
• Author: Ivan Zagorščak
• Mentor: Saša Jakšić (mentor)
• Committee member: Lucija Rogić Dumančić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Tomislav Gelo (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-09-24, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Business Mathematics and Statistics
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Macroeconomics

Abstract

Osnovni cilj ovoga rada bilo je usporediti rezultate Europske unije u ostvarenju napretka u provođenju energetske tranzicije u odnosu na posljednje donesene klimatske i energetske strateške ciljeve iz 2018. i 2022. godine kako za 2030., tako i za 2050. godinu temeljem prognoze modela koristeći metodu eksponencijalnog izglađivanja. Dodatno, ispitalo se i postojanje povezanosti u dugom i kratkom roku između varijable energetske intenzivnosti i odabranih determinanti energetske tranzicije u kojima ulaze realni BDP, emisija CO2, ukupna potrošnja obnovljivih i neobnovljivih izvora energije, neto uvoz fosilne energije te cijena prirodnog plina formirajući pritom tri manja modela koje utječu na provedbu energetske tranzicije u Europskoj uniji. Nadalje, na kraju samoga rada analizirao se utjecaj neizvjesnosti modeliranjem varijance u vrijeme energetske krize iz 2022. godine kako bi se procijenilo kakav učinak će imati na dinamiku energetske tranzicije. Za prikladnu metodologiju odabrana je deskriptivna statistička analiza koja se odnosi na prikazivanje osnovnih statističkih pokazatelja varijabli, korelacijske analize i grafičkih modela s očekivanim trendom te modeli vremenskih nizova u kojima spadaju testovi jediničnog korijena, Johansenova kointegracija, vektorski model korekcije pogreške, inovacijska analiza i GARCH modeli. Najvažniji rezultati analize ukazuju kako su na energetsku intenzivnost, odnosno energetsku učinkovitost najjači učinak imali ukupna potrošnja neobnovljivih izvora energije i emisija CO2, a najslabiji ukupna potrošnja obnovljivih izvora i cijena prirodnog plina u kojoj je dinamika energetske tranzicije bila spora. Uz to, najveća neizvjesnost dogodila se za vrijeme Covid-19 krize kada se dogodio nagli pad cijene sirove nafte Brent-Europe što je ujedno značilo da je njezin utjecaj pridonio isto tako usporavanju dinamici energetske tranzicije.

Abstract (english)

The main goal of this paper was to compare the results of the European Union in achieving progress in the implementation of the energy transition in relation to the last two adopted climate and energy strategic goals from 2018 and 2022, both for 2030 and 2050, based on model forecasts using exponential smoothing method. Additionally, the existence of long-term and short-term connections between the energy intensity variable and selected determinants of the energy transition, which includes real GDP, CO2 emissions, total consumption of renewable and non-renewable energy sources, net import of fossil energy and the price of natural gas, forming three smaller models that influence the implementation of the energy transition in the European Union. Furthermore, at the end of the paper, the impact of uncertainty was analyzed by modeling the variance at the time of the energy crisis in 2022 in order to assess what effect it will have on the dynamics of the energy transition. Descriptive statistical analysis related to the presentation of basic statistical indicators of variables, correlation analysis and graphic models with the expected trend and time series models including unit root tests, Johansen cointegration, vector error correction model, innovation analysis and GARCH models were chosen as the appropriate methodology. The most important results of the analysis indicate that the total consumption of non-renewable energy sources and CO2 emissions had the strongest effect on energy intensity, respectively energy efficiency, and the weakest total consumption of renewable sources and the price of natural gas, where the dynamics of the energy transition was slow. In addition, the greatest uncertainty occurred during the Covid-19 crisis, when the sudden drop in the price of Brent-Europe crude oil occurred, which also meant that its impact also contributed to the slowing down of the dynamics of the energy transition.

• Keywords: energetska tranzicija; neizvjesnost; prognoziranje modela; Johansenova procedura; VEC model; inovacijska analiza; GARCH modeli
• Keywords (english): energy transition; uncertainty; model forecasting; Johansen procedure; VEC model; innovation analysis; GARCH models
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:559618
• Study programme: Title: Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije (sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to authenticated users
• Created on: 2024-09-25 13:03:50