Analiza održivosti tekućeg računa Republike Hrvatske u razdoblju od 2013. do 2023. godine

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis of the sustainability of the current account of the Republic of Croatia in the period from 2013 to 2023
• Author: Ivan Svetina
• Mentor: Lucija Rogić Dumančić (mentor)
• Committee member: Tomislav Sekur (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-10-24, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Macroeconomics

Abstract

Rad analizira dinamiku tekućeg računa kroz prizmu trgovinske bilance, uslužnog sektora,
priljeva stranih ulaganja i domaće štednje. Metodologija istraživanja uključivala je
kvantitativne i kvalitativne metode analize, uz korištenje podataka iz relevantnih izvora poput
Hrvatske narodne banke, Državnog zavoda za statistiku i međunarodnih organizacija poput
MMF-a. Kvantitativna analiza uključivala je ocjenu utjecaja domaće štednje, priljeva stranog
kapitala te trgovinskih tokova na tekući račun, dok su kvalitativne metode pružile dublje
razumijevanje strukturnih promjena u gospodarstvu i njihove implikacije na vanjskotrgovinsku
bilancu. Jedan od najvažnijih nalaza rada jest da Hrvatska tijekom većeg dijela promatranog
razdoblja bilježi kontinuirani deficit u robnoj bilanci, što je rezultat velikog uvoza u odnosu na
relativno slab izvoz. Taj deficit u robnoj bilanci djelomično se neutralizira suficitom u bilanci
usluga, ponajviše zahvaljujući značajnom doprinosu turizma, koji je postao ključan faktor za
vanjsku ekonomsku stabilnost zemlje. Unatoč tome, rad naglašava kako velika ovisnost o
turizmu, kao sezonskoj djelatnosti, može stvoriti dodatne rizike za tekući račun, osobito u
razdobljima globalnih kriza, poput pandemije COVID-19, koja je ozbiljno pogodila taj sektor.
Usporedba s drugim posttranzicijskim zemljama, kao što su Slovenija i Mađarska, otkriva
slične izazove s kojima se suočavaju ova gospodarstva. Svi promatrani primjeri pokazuju
fluktuacije u priljevu stranih ulaganja, koji su ključan izvor kapitala za financiranje deficita
tekućeg računa. Odljev kapitala kroz strana izravna i portfeljna ulaganja u nekim godinama
dodatno opterećuje tekući račun i stvara dodatne makroekonomske pritiske. Posebno se ističe
važnost strukturnih reformi i potreba za povećanjem konkurentnosti domaćih proizvoda kako
bi se smanjila ovisnost o uvozu i osnažio izvozni sektor. Dakle, jačanje održivosti tekućeg
računa podrazumijeva strukturne reforme usmjerene na povećanje konkurentnosti domaće
proizvodnje, diversifikaciju izvoza te stvaranje povoljnijeg okruženja za strana ulaganja.
Stabilizacija inflacije i poticanje domaće štednje također mogu doprinijeti dugoročnoj
stabilnosti vanjskih ekonomskih odnosa, smanjujući ovisnost o vanjskom financiranju i
smanjujući osjetljivost na globalne ekonomske šokove.

Abstract (english)

This paper analyzes the dynamics of the current account through the prism of the trade balance,
the service sector, the inflow of foreign investments and domestic savings. The research
methodology included quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis, with the use of data
from relevant sources such as the Croatian National Bank, the State Statistical Office and
international organizations such as the IMF. Quantitative analysis included an assessment of
the impact of domestic savings, foreign capital inflows and trade flows on the current account,
while qualitative methods provided a deeper understanding of structural changes in the
economy and their implications for the foreign trade balance. One of the most important
findings of the work is that during most of the observed period, Croatia recorded a continuous
deficit in the goods balance, which is the result of large imports compared to relatively weak
exports. This deficit in the goods balance is partially neutralized by the surplus in the balance
of services, mostly thanks to the significant contribution of tourism, which has become a key
factor for the external economic stability of the country. Despite this, the paper emphasizes
how high dependence on tourism, as a seasonal activity, can create additional risks for the
current account, especially in periods of global crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which
has seriously affected the sector. A comparison with other post-transition countries, such as
Slovenia and Hungary, reveals similar challenges faced by these economies. All observed
examples show fluctuations in the inflow of foreign investments, which are a key source of
capital for financing the current account deficit. Capital outflow through foreign direct and
portfolio investments in some years further burdens the current account and creates additional
macroeconomic pressures. The importance of structural reforms and the need to increase the
competitiveness of domestic products in order to reduce dependence on imports and strengthen
the export sector is particularly emphasized. Thus, strengthening the sustainability of the
current account implies structural reforms aimed at increasing the competitiveness of domestic
production, diversifying exports and creating a more favorable environment for foreign
investments. Stabilizing inflation and encouraging domestic savings can also contribute to the
long-term stability of external economic relations, reducing dependence on external financing
and reducing sensitivity to global economic shocks

• Keywords: ekonomska održivost; posttranzicijske zemlje; Republika Hrvatska; tekući račun bilance plaćanja
• Keywords (english): economic sustainability; post-transition countries; Republic of Croatia; current account balance of payments
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:914560
• Study programme: Title: Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije (sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2024-10-25 11:48:40