Scenario analiza u funkciji oblikovanja strategije

master's thesis

• Title (english): Scenario analysis in the function of strategy formulation
• Author: Ivana Šporčić
• Mentor: Đurđica Gudac Fučkan (mentor)
• Committee member: Andrija Sabol (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Davor Zoričić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2015-09-29, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics

Abstract

Cilj ovog rada je pružanje uvida u scenario analizu i njezinu funkciju oblikovanja strategije. U suvremenoj ekonomiji scenarij metoda oblikovanja i upravljanja poslovnom budućnošću glasi za jedan od najsnažnijih instrumenata prodora, oblikovanja budućnosti i pomoći u oblikovanju i testiranju strategija. Budućnost je obilježena razdobljima visoke turbulencije i snažnog rasta kompleksnosti stoga je u ovom radu dan njihov detaljan opis. U takvim okolnostima rađa se tehnika scenarija. Scenarij se prvi puta pojavljuje pedesetih godina prošlog stoljeća u vojnom planiranju, a prva primjena scenarija u privatnom sektoru zabilježena je 1970-ih u Americi. Scenarij igra veliku ulogu u oblikovanju strategije jer je ona temeljni upravljački instrument u uvjetima rasta kompleksnosti i turbulencije okruženja pa se u procesu oblikovanja strategije pozornost mora obratiti i na redukciju kompleksnosti. Uspješnost izrade scenarija ovisi o sposobnosti umrežavanja unutarnjih i vanjskih zbivanja i njihovog koordiniranja sa strateškom vizijom i projekcijom strateških opcija. Postupak izrade scenarija uvijek slijedi logiku scenarij-lijevka koji podastire konzistentne alternativne sljedove budućnosti. Polazi se od sadašnjosti prema budućnosti te od manje prema većoj neizvjesnosti i kompleksnosti.

Abstract (english)

The aim of this paper is to provide the reader with an insight in the field of scenario analysis and it's function of formulating strategy. In modern ecnomy scenario technique is one of the most influencing instruments used forpenetration into the future. It also helps, among other things, to shape the future and formulate and test the strategies. Future business environment is characterized with periods of high turbulency and growing complexity, thus, in this paper, the access is given to the understanding of turbulency, complexity and uncertainty. In such circuimstances the scenario technique is developed. Scenario first appeared in 1950s, but it's first formal appliance was noted in 1970s when one American company developed it's first scenario. Scenario plays a great role in strategy development process. Successfulness of the process of scenario creation depends on it's ability to connect internal and external events and their coordination with strategic vision and projection of strategic options. The sole procedure of scenario creation always follows the logic of senario-funnel which presents alternate sequences of the future. It begins in the present and moves towards the future – from low uncertainty levels towards higher uncertainty levels.

• Keywords: scenarij; kompleksnost; neizvjesnost; strategija; scenarij-lijevak
• Keywords (english): scenario; complexity; uncertainty; strategy; scenario-funnel
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:766809
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2016-10-20 09:25:47