Uzroci i karakteristike suvremenih valutnih ratova

master's thesis

• Title (english): THE CAUSES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF MODERN CURRENCY WARS
• Author: Marija Lonjak
• Mentor: Martina Nakić (mentor)
• Committee member: Marija Beg (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Tomislav Sekur (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2016-07-13, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics

Abstract

Valutni ratovi predstavljaju simultane akcije vodećih svjetskih ekonomija koje pokušavaju ostvariti ciljeve nacionalne ekonomije kroz deprecijaciju nacionalnih valuta u odnosu na druge svjetske valute. Svaka zemlja ima drugačije motive za slabljenje nacionalne valute: borba protiv špekulacija, osiguravanje konkurentske prednosti na svjetskom tržištu, rast izvoza, rast zaposlenosti i ekonomske aktivnosti. Povijesni primjeri su pokazali da deprecijacija valute ne može biti u potpunosti „sigurno oružje“ u jačanju konkurentnosti velikih svjetskih gospodarstava. U radu se prikazuju instrumenti koji su se koristili u povijesnim, ali i u suvremenim valutnim ratovima. Nakon globalne financijske krize 2008. godine središnje banke svjetskih velesila su počele provoditi politiku kvantitativnog labavljenja kako bi pomogle oporavku gospodarstva. Fed, ECB i središnja banka Japana su politikom kvantitativnog labavljenja značajno utjecale na smanjenje vrijednosti nacionalnih valuta te na kretanje međunarodnih valutnih odnosa. Kina je prema mnogima, najznačajniji akter trećeg valutnog rata zbog politike deviznih intervencija kojom oslabljuje vrijednost nacionalne valute. Skupina G20 i MMF sve glasnije pozivaju na pronalazak zajedničkog rješenja pri sprječavanju budućih valutnih ratova. Valutni sukobi dovode do geopolitičkih sukoba što može dalje dovesti do ratnih sukoba i zahlađenja odnosa među zemljama. Najpovoljnije rješenje prema mnogima je kreiranje internacionalne valute u obliku posebnih prava vučenja. Kao alternativno rješenje predlaže se i povratak na zlatni standard te kreiranje sustava više valutnih rezervi. U radu su istaknute prednosti i nedostatci potencijalnih rješenja za dugoročnu stabilnost svjetskih međuvalutnih odnosa.

Abstract (english)

Currency wars are simultaneous actions of leading world economies that are trying to achieve the goals of the national economy through the depreciation of the national currency in relation to other world currencies. Each country has different motives for the weakening national currency: the fight against speculation, ensuring competitive advantage in the global market, growth of exports, growth of employment and economy. Historical examples show that the depreciation of the currency can not be completely "safe weapon" to strengthen the competitiveness of the major world economies. The paper presents the instruments that were used in history, but also in modern currency wars. After the global financial crisis of 2008, world central banks moved to a policy of quantitative easing to encourage economic recovery. The Fed, the ECB and the Central bank of Japan with the policy of quantitative easing significantly influenced the decrease in the value of the national currency and international currency relations. China, according to many is the most important player in the third currency war because of the implementation of foreign exchange intervention to weaken the value of the national currency. The G20 and the IMF increasingly call for finding common solution in preventing future currency wars. Currency conflicts lead to geopolitical conflicts which can further lead to armed conflict and the cooling of relations between the countries. Best solution according to many is the creation of an international currency in the form of special drawing rights. As an alternative solution return to the gold standard and creation ofsystem of multiple reserve currencies are proposed. This paper explores the advantages and disadvantages of potential solutions to the long-term stability between world's currencies.

• Keywords: devizni tečaj; valutni rat; financijska kriza; kvantitativno labavljenje
• Keywords (english): the exchange rate; currency war; financial crisis; quantitative easing
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:623448
• Study programme: Title: Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2016-12-14 15:24:04