Analiza makroekonomskih učinaka kretanja cijene nafte na svjetskom tržištu

master's thesis

• Title (english): The analysis of macroeconomic effects of the oil price fluctations on world market
• Author: Dominik Validžić
• Mentor: Alka Obadić (mentor); MBZ: 234570
• Committee member: Lucija Rogić Dumančić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Tomislav Gelo (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2020-02-21, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Macroeconomics

Abstract

U ovom radu promatraju se i analiziraju makroekonomski učinci kretanja cijene nafte na svjetskom tržištu. Naftni sektor ima veliki značaj za svako gospodarstvo, ne samo kroz udio u bruto domaćem proizvodu već i neizravno utječe na cijene svih proizvoda i usluga na tržištu. Cijena nafte je jedan od najvažnijih faktora proizvodnje i distribucije proizvoda i usluga. Veće cijene nafte povećavaju troškove inputa i proizvodnje te povećavaju potražnju za supstitutima. Fluktuacija cijena nafte odražava se na sve aspekte svakidašnjeg života, kako od pojeftinjenja ili poskupljenja životnih namirnica pa sve do utjecaja na izvoz pojedine zemlje. Nafta je danas u svijetu jedan od najznačajnijih strateških proizvoda te zbog toga zemlje proizvođači nafte imaju veliku moć u geopolitičkim odnosima, a kontrola nad izvorištima nafte jedan je od najznačajnijih uzroka kriza u svijetu. Naftni šokovi predstavljaju nagle promjene cijena nafte na svjetskim tržištima čiji se uzroci mogu povezati s geopolitičkim zbivanjima u svijetu proizvođača nafte i gospodarskim rastom u svijetu. Analiza cijene nafte i makroekonomski učinci promjene cijena su vrlo kompleksni poput ostalih ekonomskih analiza. Povijest i statistički podaci pokazuju da naftni šokovi često prethode recesiji u svijetu, inflaciji i padu produktivnosti te utječu na promjene monetarnih politika, prilagodbe tržišta rada, razvoj novih tehnologija i supstituta za naftu. Učinci fluktuacije cijena nafte mogu ostaviti dugoročne ili kratkoročne tragove i posljedice na ekonomiji u svakom gospodarstvu, koje je u nekim slučajevima teško utvrditi zbog brojnih drugih faktora, koji isto tako mogu utjecati na pokazatelje s čime su suočeni brojni istraživači.

Abstract (english)

This paper examines and analyzes the macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on the world market. The oil sector has great importance to every economy, not only through its share of gross domestic product, but also indirectly by affecting the prices of all products and services on the market. Oil price is one of the most important factors in the production and distribution of products and services. Higher oil prices increase input and production costs and also increase demand for substitutes. The fluctuation of oil prices reflects on all aspects of daily life, from the depreciation or price increase of groceries to the impact on the export of a particular country. Oil is one of the most important strategic product in the today's world, which is why oil producing countries have great power in geopolitical relations, and control over oil resources is one of the most common causes of crises in the world. Oil shocks represent the sudden changes in oil prices in world markets, the causes of which can be linked to geopolitical developments in the world of oil producers and economic growth in the world. The analysis of oil prices and the macroeconomic effects of price changes are as complex as other economic analyzes. History and statistics show that oil shocks often precede the recession in the world, inflation and productivity decline and influence changes in monetary policies, adjustments to the labor market, the development of new technologies and oil substitutes. The effects of fluctuations in oil prices can leave long-term or short-term effects and consequences on the economy, which in some cases are more difficult to determine due to a number of other factors that may also affect the indicators, and many researchers face this problem.

• Keywords: nafta; makroekonomski učinci; fluktuacija cijena; svijet; BDP; CPI
• Keywords (english): oil; macroeconomic effects; price fluctuations; world; GDP; CPI
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:959854
• Study programme: Title: Economics of energy and environment; Study programme type: professional; Study level: specialist graduate; Academic / professional title: stručni/a specijalist/specijalistica ekonomije (stručni/a specijalist/specijalistica ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2020-06-22 18:45:21