Scenarijsko planiranje u funkciji oblikovanja strategije

master's thesis

• Title (english): Scenario planning for use in strategy formulation
• Author: Martin Obad
• Mentor: Andrija Sabol (mentor); MBZ: 332914
• Committee member: Denis Dolinar (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Davor Zoričić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Managerial Economics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2020-07-07, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics

Abstract

Cilj ovog rada je prikazati važnost scenarija kao instrumenta poslovnog upravljanja u kompleksnom okruženju te donijeti zaključak o mjestu i ulozi scenarijskog planiranja u procesu oblikovanja strategije i upravljanja budućnošću. U suvremenom se poslovnom okruženju scenarijsko planiranje izdvaja kao jedna od najboljih metoda oblikovanja i upravljanja poslovnom budućnošću kroz prodor u budućnost, predviđanje alternativnih razvoja poduzeća te upravljanje, oblikovanje i harmonizaciju s budućnošću. Moderno poslovno okruženje obilježeno je viskom dinamikom promjena, visokim stupnjem turbulencije te rastućom kompleksnošću i neizvjesnošću te se u tim okolnostima rađa potreba za misaonom metodom prodora u bližu ili daljnju budućnost. Scenarij se pokazao kao bitna metoda u procesu oblikovanja strategije, koja je temeljni upravljački instrument u uvjetima visoke kompleksnosti okruženja, te tu scenarij doprinosi kao alat redukcije kompleksnosti. Postupak izrade scenarija prati logiku scenarij-lijevka koji kreće od manje kompleksnosti ka većoj tj. ide od sadašnjosti prema budućnosti te tako omogućuje predviđanje dinamike i ključnih promjena u određenoj industriji, tehnologiji i sl. bitnima za razvoj i opstanak poduzeća. Scenarijsko planiranje kroz vlastite dijagnostičke i prognostičke metode omogućuje stvaranje i razvoj apsolutnih i konkurentskih prednosti poduzeća te u konačnici rast vrijednosti. Omogućuje poduzećima da se nose s visoko kompleksnim, dinamičnim i neizvjesnim promjenama u okruženju te da iste pretvori u predvidljive promjene te ih proaktivno iskoristi kako bi osiguralo opstanak u razvoju.

Abstract (english)

The aim of this paper is to present the importance of scenarios as an instrument of business management in a complex environment and to draw a conclusion about the place and role of scenario planning in the process of strategy formation and future management. In the modern business environment, scenario planning stands out as one of the best methods of shaping and managing the future of a business through penetration into the future, anticipation of alternative development paths of a company and managing, shaping and harmonizing with the future. The modern business environment is characterized by high dynamics of change, high degree of turbulence and growing complexity and uncertainty, and in these circumstances the need for a thought method of seeing into the near or distant future was born. The scenario has proven to be an important method in the process of strategy formulation, which is a fundamental management instrument in an environment with high complexity conditions, and here the scenario contributes to strategy as a tool to reduce complexity. The scenario development process follows the scenario-funnel logic, which goes from small to high complexity, i.e. goes from the present to the future and thus enables the prediction of dynamics and key changes in a particular industry, technology, etc. which is important for the development and survival of the company. Scenario planning through its own diagnostic and prognostic methods enables the creation and development of absolute and competitive advantages of the company and ultimately results in the growth of value. It allows a company to deal with highly complex, dynamic and uncertain changes in the environment and to turn them into predictable changes and proactively use that knowledge to ensure survival in development.

• Keywords: scenarij; scenarijsko planiranje; kompleksnost; neizvjesnost; poduzeće
• Keywords (english): scenario; scenario planning; complexity; uncertainty; enterprise
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:010740
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2020-07-08 23:03:14