Modeliranje učinka fiskalne politike na pouzdanje potrošača kao prediktora ekonomske aktivnosti

doctoral thesis

• Title (english): Modeling the effect of fiscal policy on consumer confidence as a predictor of economic activity
• Author: Marina Matošec
• Mentor: Mirjana Čižmešija (mentor); MBZ: 180140
• Committee member: Hrvoje Šimović (predsjednik povjerenstva); MBZ: 257496
• Committee member: Mirjana Čižmešija (član povjerenstva); MBZ: 180140
• Committee member: Danijel Nestić (član povjerenstva); MBZ: 194044
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Statistics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2020-07-15, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Quantitative Economics
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 330; SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics. Economic science

Abstract

Disertacija obrađuje stabilizacijsku funkciju fiskalne politike na nov način, uključivanjem bihevioralne komponente u ekonomski model. Umjesto promatranja široko istraženog izravnog učinka fiskalne politike na makroekonomsku aktivnost putem fiskalnog multiplikatora, ispituje se mogu li nositelji fiskalne vlasti djelovati posredno te povećati učinkovitost provedenih mjera utječući na pouzdanje, odnosno optimizam potrošača. Ekonometrijskom panel analizom ispituju se učinci promjena različitih kategorija državne potrošnje i oporezivanja na pouzdanje potrošača u EU članicama. Provjerava se i reagiraju li potrošači na fiskalne promjene različito ovisno o fazi poslovnog ciklusa, odnosno javlja li se asimetrija u percepciji ekonomskog okruženja u prisustvu izvanrednih okolnosti poput kriza. Rezultati pokazuju da potrošači negativno percipiraju rast državne potrošnje i oporezivanja za gotovo sve promatrane kategorije, a u silaznim fazama poslovnog ciklusa, kad je prisutna veća ekonomska neizvjesnost, potrošači postaju još pesimističniji uslijed istih fiskalnih promjena. Nositelji ekonomske politike trebali bi isto uzeti u obzir prilikom dizajniranja mjera fiskalne politike. Preporuka je da se u EU članicama u svrhu stabilizacije poslovnog ciklusa u situaciji niske javne zaduženosti provodi fiskalna ekspanzija smanjenjem poreznog opterećenja rada i kapitala. U prisustvu visoke javne zaduženosti (dužničke krize) savjetuje se fiskalna štednja smanjenjem državne potrošnje u sektorima gdje evidentno postoje neefikasnosti.

Abstract (english)

Doctoral dissertation deals with the stabilization function of fiscal policy in a rather new way, by including the behavioural component in the economic model. Instead of investigating the widely researched direct effect of fiscal policy on macroeconomic activity through a fiscal multiplier, it is examined whether fiscal authorities could act indirectly and increase the effectiveness of implemented measures by influencing consumer optimism. Panel data analysis examines the effects of changes in different categories of government spending and taxation on consumer confidence in the EU member states. It is also scrutinised whether consumers react to fiscal changes differently depending on the phase of the business cycle, or in other words, whether there is an asymmetry in the perception of the economic environment in the presence of extraordinary circumstances such as crises. The results show that consumers negatively perceive the increase of government spending and taxation for almost all observed categories, while in the downward stages of the business cycle, when there is greater economic uncertainty, consumers become more pessimistic due to the same fiscal changes. Economic policymakers should take this into account when designing policy measures. It is recommended that in order to stabilize the business cycle, in a situation of low public indebtedness, fiscal expansion is carried out by reducing the tax burden on labour and capital. In the presence of high public indebtedness (debt crisis), fiscal austerity is advised by reducing government spending in sectors suffering from severe inefficiencies.

• Keywords: Fiskalna politika; stabilizacijska funkcija; pouzdanje potrošača; poslovni ciklusi; panel analiza
• Keywords (english): Fiscal policy; stabilization function; consumer confidence; business cycles; panel data analysis
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:434723
• Promotion: 2020
• Study programme: Title: Economics and Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje društvenih znanosti, polje ekonomija (doktor/doktorica znanosti, područje društvenih znanosti, polje ekonomija)
• Type of resource: Text
• Extent: 265
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to authenticated users
• Created on: 2020-09-15 07:47:48