Fiskalni rizici pandemije i utjecaj COVID-19 krize na fiskalna kretanja u Hrvatskoj

master's thesis

• Title (english): Fiscal risks of pandemics and COVID-19 fiscal impact in Croatia
• Author: Ana Starešinović
• Mentor: Marko Primorac (mentor); MBZ: 300174
• Committee member: Hrvoje Šimović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Dajana Barbić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Finance); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-07-08, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Finance

Abstract

2020. godina je obilježena pojavom globalne pandemije te države, u borbi s pandemijom, donose razne mjere s ciljem zaštite stanovništva što dovodi do pada ekonomske aktivnosti te pojave fiskalnih rizika. Oni mogu u kratkom roku narušiti stabilnost države te cilj svake države treba biti njihovo efikasno upravljanje. Pandemije su specifični izvor fiskalnih rizika te za njih država mora izdvojiti značajna sredstva koja nisu bila planirana pri izradi proračuna. Efikasnije upravljanje navedenim rizicima pridonosi robusnosti javnih financija, boljem izvršavanju državnog proračuna i kredibilitetu. Kao posljedica COVID-19 se pojavila nova ekonomska kriza koja svojim specifičnim obilježjima odudara od kriza iz prošlosti. Kod pandemije je posebice važan faktor neizvjesnosti u pogledu trajanja i intenziteta šoka te je teško govoriti o utjecaju pandemije u trenu kada šok još uvijek djeluje. Rad analizira fiskalna kretanja u Hrvatskoj povezana s COVID-19 krizom. Rezultati analize pokazuju veliki pad gospodarske aktivnosti te posljedično najvećeg godišnjeg pada BDP-a u povijesti. Iako je Hrvatska nizom donesenih mjera pomogla stanju na tržištu rada, ukupan rezultat je ipak negativan. Slijedom planirane razine ukupnih rashoda i prihoda došlo je do manjka u proračunu opće države, a javni dug bilježi povijesno najvišu razinu. Analiza ukazuje da je koordinacija donesenih mjera privremeno ublažila nepovoljne učinke pandemije, no pad ekonomske aktivnosti je zajedno s mjerama podrške nužno doveo do smanjenja prihoda države i snažnog rasta potreba za financiranjem. Točni razmjeri posljedica ove krize još nisu poznati i uvelike će ovisiti o daljnjem razvoju i trajanju epidemiološke situacije.

Abstract (english)

2020. was defined by the outbreak of global pandemic. As a response to the shock, countries adopt various measures with the aim of protecting population which leads to a decline in economic activity and the emergence of fiscal risks. Fiscal risks can disrupt countries' economic stability momentarily and each country should have a goal to efficiently manage them. Pandemics are a specific source of fiscal risks and as a response, countries must allocate significant funds that were not planned in the state budget. More efficient management of these risks contributes to the robustness of public finances, better execution of the state budget and credibility. As a result of pandemic, a new economic crisis has emerged, which, with its specific features, differs from the crises of the past. In a pandemic, the uncertainty factor regarding the duration and intensity of the shock is particularly important and it is difficult to talk about the pandemic's impact at a time when the shock is still active. The paper analyzes the fiscal developments in Croatia related to the COVID-19 crisis. The results of the analysis show a large decline in economic activity and consequently the largest annual decline in GDP in history. Although government's measures have helped the situation on the labor market, the overall result is still negative. Following the planned level of total expenditures and revenues, there has been a deficit in the general government budget, and public debt is experiencing its highest level in country's history. The analysis indicates that the coordination of the adopted measures temporarily mitigated the adverse effects of the pandemic, but the decline in economic activity, together with support measures, necessarily led to a reduction in government revenue and a strong increase in funding needs. The exact extent of the consequences of this crisis is not yet known and will largely depend on the further development and duration of the epidemiological situation.

• Keywords: fiskalni rizici; pandemije; državni proračun; ekonomska kriza; fiskalna kretanja
• Keywords (english): fiscal risks; pandemics; state budget; economic crisis; fiscal impact
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:804833
• Study programme: Title: Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access; Embargo expiration date: 2022-01-13
• Created on: 2021-07-12 20:37:54