UTJECAJ VANJSKOTRGOVINSKE BILANCE NA EKONOMSKI RAST

master's thesis

• Title (english): THE IMPACT OF THE TRADE BALANCE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
• Author: Patrik Barišić
• Mentor: Vladimir Arčabić (mentor); MBZ: 322415
• Committee member: Lucija Rogić Dumančić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Ozana Nadoveza (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Vladimir Arčabić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-08-25, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Macroeconomics

Abstract

Cilj rada je analizirati utjecaj varijabli vanjske trgovine, odnosno vanjskotrgovinske bilance, izvoza i uvoza na ekonomski rast u okviru proširenog Solow-Swan modela rasta. Osobit doprinos rada je što se ti efekti raščlanjuju na kratkoročne i dugoročne. Procjena robusnosti rezultata provjerava se korištenjem različitih definicija varijabli vanjske trgovine. Empirijska analiza provedena je za period od 1960. do 2019. na velikom uzorku razvijenih zemalja članica Europske unije i Organizacije za ekonomsku kooperaciju i razvoj, ukupno 42 zemlje. S obzirom na sve veću integriranost zemalja u svjetsko gospodarstvo, empirijska analiza provedena je pomoću panel metoda koje uklanjaju probleme heterogenosti u nagibu parametara i prostorne zavisnosti. Temeljem provedene empirijske analize, zaključuje se kako je utjecaj vanjskotrgovinske bilance na ekonomski rast neutralan, dok je utjecaj izvoza i uvoza značajan i pozitivan te je ta relacija postojana i kada se efekti raščlane na kratkoročne i dugoročne.

Abstract (english)

This paper aims to analyze the impact of foreign trade variables, i.e., trade balance, exports, and imports on economic growth within the extended Solow-Swan growth model. Special contribution of the paper is that these effects are broken down into short-term and long-term. The assessment of the robustness of the results is checked using different definitions of foreign trade variables. The empirical analysis was conducted for the period from 1960 to 2019 on a large sample of developed member states of the European Union and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a total of 42 countries. Given the increasing integration of countries in the world economy, the empirical analysis was conducted using a panel method that eliminates the problem of heterogeneity in the slope of parameters and cross-sectional dependence. Based on the empirical analysis, it is concluded that the impact of foreign trade balance on economic growth is neutral, while the impact of exports and imports is significant and positive, and the relationship is stable even when the effects are broken down into short-term and long-term.

• Keywords: ekonomski rast; vanjskotrgovinska bilanca; vanjska trgovina; panel modeli; prostorna zavisnost
• Keywords (english): economic growth; trade balance; foreign trade; panel models; cross-sectional dependence
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:952888
• Study programme: Title: Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2021-09-02 10:46:37