Utjecaj šokova dohotka i kamatne stope na osobnu potrošnju u RH

master's thesis

• Title (english): Impact of income and interest rate shocks on personal consumption in the Republic of Croatia
• Author: Karlo Bračun
• Mentor: Ozana Nadoveza (mentor); MBZ: 332925
• Committee member: Ozana Nadoveza (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Lucija Rogić Dumančić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Irena Raguž Krištić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-09-30, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Macroeconomics

Abstract

Osobna potrošnja označava potrošnju materijalnih dobara i usluga radi zadovoljenja potrošačevih potreba. Osobna potrošnja svojim udjelom je najveća sastavnica agregatne potražnje, tj. ona ima najveći udio u bruto domaćem proizvodu. U prethodnoj se financijskoj krizi, te recesiji koja je uslijedila, pokazalo kako usporen oporavak osobne potrošnje može značajno produljiti trajanje recesije. U svrhu empirijske analize primijenjena je metodologija strukturnog vektorskog autoregresivnog modela te vektorskog modela ispravljanja pogrešaka. Rezultati modela u skladu su sa standardnom ekonomskom teorijom. I raspoloživi dohodak i realna kamatna stopa imaju očekivani utjecaj na osobnu potrošnju. Raspoloživi dohodak ima jači i perzistentniji utjecaj od realne kamatne stope. Također se zaključuje da postoji dugoročna pozitivna veza između osobne potrošnje i raspoloživog dohotka.

Abstract (english)

Personal consumption is defined as the consumption of goods and services with the aim to fulfill the needs of the consumer. Personal consumption by its share is the largest component of aggregate demand, ie. it has the largest share in gross domestic product. The previous financial crisis, and the ensuing recession, showed how a slow recovery in personal consumption could significantly prolong the duration of the recession. For the purpose of empirical analysis, the methodology of the structural vector autoregressive model and the vector error correction model was applied. The results of the models are in line with standard economic theory. Both disposable income and the real interest rate have an expected impact on personal consumption. Disposable income has a stronger and more persistent impact than the real interest rate. It is also concluded that there is a long-term positive relationship between personal consumption and disposable income.

• Keywords: osobna potrošnja; raspoloživi dohodak; realna kamatna stopa; strukturni vektorski autoregresivni model; vektorski model ispravljanja pogrešaka
• Keywords (english): personal consumption; disposable income; real interest rate; structural vector autoregressive model; vector error correction model
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:429471
• Study programme: Title: Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2021-09-30 12:23:37