Analiza osobne potrošnje u uvjetima globalnih kriza

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis of personal consumption in the context of global crises
• Author: Kristina Baniček
• Mentor: Tomislav Globan (mentor)
• Committee member: Tomislav Globan (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Tomislav Sekur (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Vladimir Arčabić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2022-09-21, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics

Abstract

Bruto domaći proizvod (BDP) predstavlja ukupnu novčanu ili tržišnu vrijednost svih proizvoda i usluga koji su proizvedeni unutar jedne države u točno određenom vremenskom razdoblju. Osobna potrošnja, investicije, državna potrošnja i razlika između izvoza i uvoza su četiri glavne komponente bruto domaćeg proizvoda jedne države. Najveća od njih je osobna potrošnja čiji udio u BDP-u iznosi oko 60% u razvijenim zemljama. Ona se kreće usporedno s bruto domaćim proizvodom što implicira postojanje visokog koeficijenta korelacije. Budući da je udio osobne potrošnje vrlo visok, ona se može koristiti kao jedan od alata za brži izlazak iz krize, ali se iz istog razloga može produljiti trajanje recesije ukoliko je nedostatna. U nastavku ovog diplomskog rada ispitana je potrošnja kućanstava u razdoblju od otprilike 1990. godine do posljednjeg dostupnog podatka, uobičajeno za 2021. godinu ili za drugi kvartal 2022. godine. Posebni naglasak je stavljen na razdoblja kriza. Promatrane krize su recesije 1990-ih godina u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, Japanu i nekoliko zemalja Europske unije, zatim Velika recesija s početkom u 2007. godini za SAD, odnosno 2008. godini za Europsku uniju i Japan te naposljetku kriza izazvana koronavirusom. Preostale komponente BDP-a su u globalu manje značajne, međutim neke od njih su izrazito važne za pojedine države, npr. kontrakcija izvoza u Japanu je dovela do recesije 2008. godine. U posljednjem poglavlju glavnog dijela rada, potrošnja kućanstava je stavljena u kontekst ekonomske krize koja je izazvana globalnom pandemijom COVID-19. O snazi i rasprostranjenosti koronavirusa najviše svjedoči činjenica da su Olimpijske igre u Tokiju 2020. godine odgođene za 2021. godinu. Trendovi potrošača su podložni promjenama ovisno o situaciji u gospodarstvu i očekivanjima o budućnosti gospodarstva, o čemu će više riječi biti u nastavku.

Abstract (english)

Gross domestic product (GDP) represents the total monetary or market value of all products and services that have been produced within a country in a precisely defined period of time. Personal consumption, investments, government consumption and the difference between exports and imports are the four main components of a country's gross domestic product. The largest of them is personal consumption, whose share in GDP is about 60% in developed countries. It moves parallel with the gross domestic product, which implies the existence of a high correlation coefficient. Since the share of personal consumption is very high, it can be used as one of the tools for a faster exit from the crisis, but for the same reason, the duration of the recession can be prolonged if it is insufficient. In the continuation of this thesis, household consumption was examined in the period from approximately 1990 to the last available data, usually 2021 or the second quarter of 2022. Special attention is given to crises periods. The observed crises are the recessions of the 1990s in the United States of America, Japan and several countries of the European Union, then the Great Recession starting in 2007 for the USA and 2008 for the European Union and Japan, and finally the crisis caused by the coronavirus. The remaining components of GDP are less significant globally, however some of them are extremely important for individual countries, for example the contraction of exports in Japan led to the recession in 2008. In the last chapter of the main part of this thesis, household consumption is placed in the context of the economic crisis caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. The fact that the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo have been postponed to 2021 is the best evidence of the strength and spread of the coronavirus. Consumer trends are liable to change depending on the situation in the economy and expectations about the future of the economy, which will be discussed further below.

• Keywords: BDP; osobna potrošnja; potrošač; kriza; COVID-19
• Keywords (english): GDP; personal consumption; consumer; crisis; COVID-19
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:142796
• Study programme: Title: Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2022-09-22 10:14:52