| Abstract | Cilj je ovoga rada opisati u kakvu su odnosu bili inflacija i nezaposlenost tijekom povijesti i kakav je njihov odnos danas, u 21. stoljeću. A. W. Phillips u svome je radu Odnos između nezaposlenosti i stope promjene stopa novčane nadnice u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu, 1861. – 1957. objavljenome 1958. otkrio da postoji određena povezanost između stope inflacije i stope nezaposlenosti.
Inflacija je pojam koji označava kontinuirani porast opće razine cijena, a stopa inflacije je stopa kojom ta razina cijena raste. Kroz povijest je inflacija u SAD-u prolazila kroz niska i stabilna razdoblja, ali isto tako su postojala i razdoblja iznimno visoke i zabrinjavajuće inflacije. Gospodarski je rast moguć jedino uz stabilne cijene i isto takva očekivanja o njihovoj budućnosti.
Nezaposlenost se usko veže uz ekonomske cikluse. U recesijskim razdobljima njena stopa raste, dok se u razdobljima ekspanzije stopa nezaposlenosti smanjuje, odnosno povećava se zaposlenost. Da bi se osoba mogla klasificirati kao nezaposlena, mora ispuniti uvjet aktivnog traženja posla, dostupna je za rad, a ne može ga naći.
Odnos između ovih dvaju pojmova prvi je opisao A. W. Phillips za područje Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva, a nekoliko godina kasnije Samuelson i Solow učinili su isto za područje SAD-a. Za oba područja utvrđen je negativan odnos između nezaposlenosti i inflacije, a u ekonomiji je poznatiji pod nazivom Phillipsova krivulja. U sedamdesetim godinama prošlog stoljeća ovo je razmatranje ipak opovrgnuto s obzirom na to da je došlo do rasta inflacije, ali i nezaposlenosti, te se od tada ovaj odnos ne može s potpunom sigurnošću potvrditi.
Nezaposlenost i inflacija jedne su od glavnih determinanti razvoja gospodarstva. Njihove stabilne razine omogućuju rast, a u razdobljima nestabilnosti utječu na pad cjelokupnog gospodarstva. Upravo zbog toga FED, centralna banka SAD-a, provodi monetarnu politiku s dva glavna cilja, poznatijim pod nazivom dualni mandat. Dualni mandat FED-a odnosi se na ostvarivanje ciljeva maksimalne zaposlenosti i stabilnih cijena u SAD-u, a FED koristi instrumente monetarne politike kako bi ostvario te ciljeve.
Na temelju podataka koji su prikupljeni tijekom 21. stoljeća može se zaključiti da određeni odnos između inflacije i nezaposlenosti u SAD-u postoji. Nije moguće u potpunosti utvrditi u kojem se smjeru on kreće, no povezanost postoji. Razmatranja A. W. Phillipsa, Samuelsona i Solowa o negativnom odnosu ovih, prema FED-u najbitnijih pokazatelja u ekonomiji, mogu se potvrditi samo za neka kratkotrajna razdoblja ukoliko se promatra razdoblje kratkog roka. |
| Abstract (english) | The main goal of this paper is to describe the relationship between inflation and unemployement throughout history and their relationship today, in 21. century. A. W. Phillips has in his paper The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957., published in 1958., discovered that a certain relationship between inflation and unemployement exsists.
Inflation is a term that describes a continuous increase in the general price level, and the inflation rate is the rate at which that price level increases. Throughout history, inflation in the US has gone through low and stable periods, but there have also been periods of extremely high and worrisome inflation. Economic growth is possible only with stable prices and same expectations about their future.
Unemployment is closely related to economic cycles. In periods of recession, its rate increases, while in periods of expansion, the unemployment rate decreases and employment increases. In order for a person to be classified as unemployed, he must meet the condition that he is actively looking for work, is available for work, and cannot find it.
The relationship between these two terms was first described by A.W. Phillips for the UK area, and a few years later Samuelson and Solow did the same for the US area. For both areas, a negative relationship between unemployment and inflation was established, and in economics it is better known as the Phillips curve. In the 1970s, however, this consideration was refuted, given that there was an increase in inflation and unemployment, and since then this relationship cannot be confirmed with complete certainty.
Unemployment and inflation are one of the main determinants of economic development. Their stable levels enable growth, and in periods of instability they affect the decline of the entire economy. This is precisely why the Fed, the central bank of the USA, implements monetary policy with two main goals, better known as the dual mandate. The dual mandate of the Fed aims to achieve the goals of maximum employment and stable prices in the US, and the Fed uses monetary policy instruments to achieve these goals.
Based on data collected in the 21st century, it can be concluded that a certain relationship between inflation and unemployment in the USA exists. It is not possible to fully determine in which direction it moves, but relationship exsists. Considerations of A.W. Phillips, Samuelson and Solow about the negative relationship of these, according to the Fed, the most important indicators in the economy, can be confirmed only for some short-term periods of time if one looks at the short-term period. |
