Uloga psihologije u terminskom trgovanju robama

master's thesis

• Title (english): The role of psychology in commodity futures trading
• Author: Luka Patoč
• Mentor: Tomislav Baković (mentor)
• Committee member: Ines Dužević (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Trade and International Business); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2023-09-25, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Trade and Tourism

Abstract

Ovaj rad istražuje tezu bihevioralne ekonomije koja tvrdi kako sudionici tržišta ne nastupaju isključivo kao racionalni pojedinci već na njihove odluke mogu utjecati i njihove osobine, emocije i vanjski faktori. Kroz istraživanje se pokušalo shvatiti kako osobine pojedinaca utječu na spremnost preuzimanja rizika. Zato se provodila anketa na uzorku studenata Ekonomskog fakulteta u Zagrebu kako bi se ispitala ta pretpostavka. Rezultati istraživanja primjenjuju se na primjeru terminskog trgovanja robama. Terminska trgovina robama predstavlja kupovinu ugovora koji su vezani za određenu robu te se temelje na dogovorenoj cijeni i datumu dospijeća u budućnosti. Kao i ostali načini ulaganja u vrijednosne papire, trgovanje robama može se podijeliti na više ili manje rizične. Zbog karakteristike roba kao investicijske klase, one su odličan instrument za zaštitu od rizika ili putem hedginga ili diverzifikacije. Također imamo i špekulante koji se izlažu riziku promjene cijena sa ciljem zarade. Istraživanje ovog rada pokazalo je kako osobe koje imaju različite osobine imaju i različite investicijske odluke. Tako su ekstroverti, koji su uglavnom optimistični, samouvjereni, energični te vjeruju u pozitivan ishod svojih ulaganja, spremniji preuzeti puno više rizika. Ovakvim ishodom istraživanja se može reći da će špekulanti koji su spremni preuzeti veći rizik, najčešće ekstroverti. S druge strane, osobe s visokom razinom savjesnosti uglavnom preuzimaju puno manje rizika, staloženiji su i puno opreznije ulaze u investicijske odluke. Osobe koje ulaganje u robe koriste kao način diverzifikacije i hedginga najčešće su visoko na spektru savjesnosti.

Abstract (english)

This paper explores the thesis of behavioral economics, which argues that market participants do not act solely as rational individuals, but their decisions can be influenced by their characteristics, emotions, and external factors. The research attempted to understand how individuals' characteristics influence their willingness to take risks. To test this assumption, a survey was conducted on a sample of students from the Faculty of Economics in Zagreb. The research results are applied to the example of commodity futures trading. Commodity futures trading involves buying contracts tied to specific commodities based on an agreed price and future delivery date. Like other forms of investments, commodity trading can be categorized as more or less risky. Because of its caracteristics, commodities are great investment toll for hedging and diversification. Additionally, there are speculators who expose themselves to price change risk with the goal of making a profit. The research in this paper has shown that individuals with different characteristics make different investment decisions. For example, extroverts who are generally optimistic, confident, energetic, and believe in the positive outcome of their investments are more willing to take higher risks. As a result of this research, it can be said that speculators who are willing to take greater risks are often extroverts. On the other hand, individuals with a high level of conscientiousness generally take much less risk, are more composed, and make more cautious investment decisions. Those who use commodity investment as a means of diversification and hedging are typically high on the conscientiousness spectrum.

• Keywords: terminska trgovina robama; preuzimanje rizika; bihevioralna ekonomija; teorije ličnosti; donošenje odluka
• Keywords (english): commodity futures trading; risk taking; behavioral economics; personality traits theory; decision making
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:069884
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2023-09-28 16:26:12