Utjecaj ekonomskih katastrofa i Covid-19 pandemije na makroekonomske pokazatelje

master's thesis

• Title (english): Impact of economic disasters and the Covid-19 pandemic on macroeconomic indicators
• Author: Jerko Zadro
• Mentor: Vladimir Arčabić (mentor)
• Committee member: Tomislav Sekur (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Ana Ivanišević Hernaus (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Finance); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-02-26, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Macroeconomics

Abstract

Utjecaj ekonomskih katastrofa nikada do sada nije ostavljao veći utjecaj na stanje globalnog gospodarstva. Takvoj situaciji najviše je doprinio intenzivni proces globalizacije koji je realiziran kroz drugu polovicu 20. stoljeća i postojeći dio 21. stoljeća. Umreženost nacionalnih gospodarstva dosegla je do sada nezabilježene razine, i svaki kolaps nacionalnih gospodarstva ili geografski koncentriranog područja ostavlja velik trag na drugim nacionalnim ekonomijama koje mogu biti geografski udaljene tisućama kilometara. Nažalost, uz sve pozitivne procese koji su nastali jačanjem trenda globalizacije, nastali su i neki negativni trendovi koji posljedično mogu biti razorni za pojedine nacionalne ekonomije, pa čak i na cijelo globalno gospodarstvo. Kroz povijest ekonomske katastrofe najčešće su se očitavale kao elementarne nepogode ili zdravstvene pandemije, no kroz noviju povijest (uvođenjem valuta, i nacionalnih sustava plaćanja), sve je više ekonomskih katastrofa koje su nastale uslijed financijskih poteškoća i neprilika. Njihov nastanak može promijeniti do tada standardiziran način života u nacionalnim ekonomijama, kreirati nove trgovačke kanale, ili ugasiti postojeće. U takvim situacijama jako je važno shvatiti koji su razlozi nastanka katastrofa, jesu li one mogle biti predviđene, jesu li reakcije središnje vlasti bile primjerene i pravovremene, te kako se njihova realizacija očitovala na kvalitetu života pogođenih područja. Stoga, doprinos ovog rada je prikazati utjecaj navedenih nepogoda na makroekonomske pokazatelje izabranih zemalja i usporedbu sa makroekonomskim efektima potencijalno najnovije ekonomske katastrofe, COVID – 19 pandemije. Analizirajući prezentirane podatke dolazimo do spoznaje kako COVID - 19 pandemija zapravo i nije ekonomska katastrofa u slučaju Hrvatske i post-tranzicijskih zemalja, te da je pad ekonomske aktivnosti promatranih zemalja bio jako kratak (godinu dana). U konačnici dolazimo do zaključka kako su najveće ekonomske katastrofe proizašle ljudskim djelovanjem (svjetski ratovi) koji ostavljaju veće negativne posljedice na napredak globalnog gospodarstva i životnog standarda nego što je to slučaj kod ekonomskih katastrofa proizašlih iz elementarnih nepogoda (potresi, pandemije, poplave).

Abstract (english)

In the 21st century, the impact of economic catastrophes has never had a greater effect on the state of the global economy. This situation has been primarily influenced by the intensive process of globalization that unfolded during the second half of the 20th century and the current part of the 21st century. The interconnectedness of national economies has reached unprecedented levels, and the collapse of national economies or geographically concentrated areas leaves a significant mark on other national economies that may be geographically distant by thousands of kilometers. Unfortunately, alongside the positive processes that have arisen from the strengthening trend of globalization, some negative trends have emerged that can be devastating for individual national economies and even the entire global economy. Throughout history, economic catastrophes have most often manifested as natural disasters or health pandemics, but in recent history (with the introduction of currencies and national payment systems), there is an increasing number of economic catastrophes resulting from financial difficulties and crises.Their occurrence can change the previously standardized way of life in national economies, create new trade channels, or extinguish existing ones. In such situations, it is crucial to understand the reasons for the occurrence of catastrophes, whether they could have been predicted, whether the reactions of central authorities were appropriate and timely, and how their implementation manifested in the quality of life in the affected areas. Therefore, the contribution of this work is to present the impact of the mentioned disasters on the macroeconomic indicators of selected countries and compare them with the macroeconomic effects of the potentially most recent economic catastrophe, the COVID-19 pandemic. Analyzing the presented data, we come to the realization that the COVID-19 pandemic is not actually an economic disaster in the case of Croatia and post-transition countries, and that the decline in economic activity of the observed countries was very short (one year). In the end, we come to the conclusion that the biggest economic disasters were caused by human action (world wars), which leave greater negative consequences on the progress of the global economy and living standards than in the cases with economic disasters caused by natural disasters (earthquakes, pandemics, floods).

• Keywords: ekonomska katastrofa; bruto domaći proizvod; makroekonomski pokazatelji; korona kriza
• Keywords (english): economic catastrophe; gross domestic product; macroeconomic indicators; COVID-19 crisis
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:076586
• Study programme: Title: Business economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije (sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to authenticated users
• Created on: 2024-02-28 11:59:17