Financijski baloni i predvidivost kriza na financijskim tržištima

master's thesis

• Title (english): Financial bubbles and predictability of financial market crises
• Author: Josipa Skendrović
• Mentor: Mihovil Anđelinović (mentor)
• Committee member: Antonija Buljan (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Maja Mihelja Žaja (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Finance); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-04-15, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Finance

Abstract

Financijski baloni i krize u svijetu financija poznati su fenomeni koji su obilježili povijest ekonomske volatilnosti. Nastaju kada se cijene financijskih instrumenata, dionica, nekretnina ili roba rapidno podižu iznad njihove stvarne vrijednosti, a često su popraćene ljudskim faktorom - špekulacijama i potrebom za brzom zaradom. Predviđanje njihova pucanja i dalje je poprilična
misterija, međutim postoji niz indikatora koji u današnjem suvremenom životu pomažu ekonomistima kako bi bolje razumjeli te se donekle pripremili na potencijalne financijske katastrofe. Financijske krize dolaze kao odgovor na puknuće određene vrste takozvanog balona. Iste se ogledaju u padu cijena dionica, povlačenjem investitora s tržišta, gubicima, bankrotu i štetama za ekonomiju u cjelini. Kao dodatan poticaj stvaranju financijskih balona u budućnosti u prilog idu i suvremene tehnologije koje su sve zastupljenije u području financija, a koje zbog svoje jednostavnosti sve više privlače različite vrste ulagača. Primarni cilj ovoga diplomskoga rada je putem povijesnih podataka i modela predviđanja doći do zaključka mogu li se krize predvidjeti u
budućnosti. Rad se temelji na sekundarnim izvorima podataka. Kod pisanja teorijskog dijela rada koristi se stručna literatura domaćih i inozemnih autora koja se odnosi na knjige te internetske izvore poput znanstvenih članaka. Od metoda u pisanju diplomskoga rada koriste se metoda deskripcije, induktivna metoda te metoda komparacije. Rad daje teorijski uvid u osnovne
karakteristike financijskih balona, faktore koji utječu na stvaranje istih, njihove vrste i oblike kroz povijest. Također, na značaju se daje i regulatornim tijelima, kao i posljedicama njihova puknuća. Na samome kraju, donijet će se zaključak o mogućnosti predviđanja puknuća financijskih balona te nastanku potencijalnih balona budućnosti.

Abstract (english)

Financial bubbles and crises in the world of finance are well-known phenomena that have marked the history of economic volatility. They arise when the prices of financial instruments, shares, real estate or goods rise rapidly above their real value, and are often accompanied by the human factor - speculation and the need for quick profit. Predicting their burst is still quite a mystery. However, there are a number of indicators in today's modern life that help economists to better understand
and prepare for potential financial crises. Financial crises come in response to the bursting of a certain type of bubble so they are reflected in the drop in share prices, the withdrawal of investors from the market, losses, bankruptcy and damage to the economy as a whole. Financial technologies are an additional incentive for creation of financial bubbles and because of their simplicity they attract more of different investors. The primary goal of this thesis is to use historical data and
prediction models in order to present a conclusion about predictability of crises in the future. The work is based on secondary data sources. When writing the theoretical part of the work, the professional literature of domestic and foreign authors is used, which refers to books, and Internet sources such as scientific articles. Among the methods used in writing the diploma thesis are the description method, the inductive method and the comparison method. The paper provides a
theoretical insight into the basic characteristics of financial bubbles, the factors that influence their creation, financial bubble types and forms throughout history. Also, importance is given to regulatory bodies, as well as the consequences of their failure. At the very end, by researching different models, a conclusion will be reached on the possibility of predicting the bursting of financial bubbles and the emergence of potential bubbles of the future.

• Keywords: financijski baloni; kriza; suvremena tehnologija; predvidivost
• Keywords (english): financial bubbles; crisis; modern technology; predictability
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:947016
• Study programme: Title: Business economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije (sveučilišni magistar ekonomije/sveučilišna magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2024-04-15 10:28:43