Implikacije modelske neizvjesnosti na procjene jaza dohotka i procjene fiskalnih multiplikatora

doctoral thesis

• Title (english): The implications of model uncertainty on output gap estimation and estimation of fiscal multipliers
• Author: Viktor Viljevac
• Mentor: Josip Tica (mentor)
• Committee member: Vladimir Arčabić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-07-08, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; General Economy
• Universal decimal classification (UDC): 330 - Economics. Economic science

Abstract

Disertacija se bavi analizom utjecaja modelske neizvjesnosti na procjene jaza dohotka i procjene fiskalnih multiplikatora. Iz rezultata ovog istraživanja može se zaključiti da u razdobljima recesija dolazi do porasta modelske neizvjesnosti povezane s procjenama jaza dohotka u pojedinim zemljama Europske unije, što znači da je u tim zemljama oslanjanje na procjene jaza dohotka za vođenje ekonomske politike manje pouzdano u recesijama u usporedbi s nerecesijskim razdobljima. Nadalje, u ovom se radu pokazuje da su, vodeći računa o modelskoj neizvjesnosti, procjene utjecaja fiskalne politike na realni BDP za Republiku Hrvatsku dobivene pomoću Blanchard-Perotti strukturnog vektorskog autoregresivnog modela pristrane i nekonzistentne, što dovodi u pitanje njihovu korisnost za praktično vođenje fiskalne politike.

Abstract (english)

This dissertation is focused on the analysis of the impact of model uncertainty on estimates of the output gap and estimates of fiscal multipliers. The results of this research imply that model uncertainty increases in recessions in some European Union countries, i.e. that in recessions, relying on estimates of the output gap for conducting economic policy becomes less reliable compared to non-recessionary periods. Moreover, this paper shows that, after taking model uncertainty into account, estimates of the impact of fiscal policy on Croatian real GDP obtained using the Blanchard-Perotti SVAR model are biased and inconsistent, which casts doubt on their usefulness for conducting fiscal policy.

• Keywords: jaz dohotka; potencijalni BDP; fiskalni multiplikatori; modelska neizvjesnost; Blanchard-Perotti SVAR model; Romer i Romer narativni pristup
• Keywords (english): output gap; potential GDP; fiscal multipliers; model uncertainty; Blanchard-Perotti SVAR model; Romer and Romer narrative approach
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:626853
• Promotion: 2024
• Study programme: Title: Economics and Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: postgraduate; Academic / professional title: doktor/doktorica znanosti iz znanstvenog područja društvenih znanosti (doktor/doktorica znanosti iz znanstvenog područja društvenih znanosti)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2024-07-16 06:02:52