Analiza tečajne politike Švicarske narodne banke tijekom globalne krize

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis of the Swiss national bank exchange rate policy during global crisis
• Author: Sunčica Gojković
• Mentor: Gordana Kordić (mentor)
• Committee member: Marijana Ivanov (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Martina Nakić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2015-09-29, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Finance

Abstract

Nakon propasti Lehman Brothers-a, u listopadu 2008. godine, došlo je do mnogih atipičnih događaja na svjetskim tržištima. Kriza američkog tržišta nekretnina proširila se po cijelom svijetu pa tako i na Europu. U europskim zemljama i zemljama eurozone došlo je do smanjenja potrošnje što se negativno odrazilo na zemlje ovisne o izvozu. Jedna od njih je Švicarska, čije se gospodarstvo u navedenom kontekstu također našlo pod okriljem recesije.
Švicarska narodna banka u tom je razdoblju učinkovito provodila politiku nulte kamatne stope kako bi potakla gospodarski rast i spriječila aprecijaciju nacionalne valute - švicarskog franka. Velik rizik za švicarsku financijsku stabilnost predstavljala je dužnička kriza koja se odvijala u susjednim zemljama eurozone. Povjerenje u euro poljuljano je te su investitori tražili utočište u švicarskom franku, kako bi očuvali vrijednost svoga novca. Budući da je potražnja za frankom rasla, njegova vrijednost je aprecirala. Posljedično, snaga švicarskog franka smanjila je konkurentnost švicarskog izvoza i smanjila gospodarski rast. Švicarska narodna banka je, da bi spriječila daljnju aprecijaciju franka, provodila snažne intervencije na tržištu.
Međutim, već od 2010. godine švicarsko gospodarstvo se oporavlja. Razlozi znatno bržeg oporavka u odnosu na zemlje eurozone mogu se naći u ulozi švicarskog franka kao „sigurnog utočišta―, sigurne i stabilne valute u odnosu na druge svjetske valute uz koje se vežu veći rizici te također u posljednje vrijeme poljuljanom povjerenju u euro zbog problema mnogih zemalja članica Europske unije.
Ekonomski rast bio je posljedica fiksiranja tečaja nacionalne valute početkom rujna 2011. godine, od kada jedan euro vrijedi 1,20 švicarskih franaka. Takvu odluku Švicarske narodne banke mnogi su dočekali s dozom skepse i straha te su ju smatrali kontroverznom i neodrživom. Razlog fiksiranja tečaja ležao je u održavanju cilja stabilnosti cijena i konkurentnosti gospodarstva te se u narednim godinama pokazao pozitivnim rješenjem zbog čega je smatrano da će fiksirani franak ostat i dalje osnovni alat monetarne politike.

Abstract (english)

After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in October 2008, there have been many atypical events in world markets. The crisis of the US housing market spread around the world, including Europe. In european countries and the euro area countries decreased consumption adversely affected countries dependent on exports. One of these countries was Switzerland, whose economy in this context was also found under the auspices of the recession.
Swiss National Bank in this period effectively implemented a policy of zero interest rates to encourage economic growth and prevent the appreciation of the national currency - the Swiss franc. High risk for the Swiss financial stability was a debt crisis that took place in the neighboring countries of the eurozone. Confidence in the euro was shattered and investors sought shelter in the Swiss franc, to preserve the value of their money. Since the demand for the Swiss franc rose, its value appreciated. Consequently, the strength of the Swiss franc reduced the competitiveness of Swiss exports and reduced economic growth. To prevent further appreciation of the franc, Swiss National Bank conducted strong intervention in the market.
However, from 2010 Swiss economy is recovering. Reasons for considerably faster recovery compared to eurozone countries can be found in the role of the Swiss franc as a "safe haven", a secure and stable currency in relation to other world currencies that are connected with higher risks and also recently shaken confidence in the euro because of the problems of many EU member states.
Economic growth was a result of fixing the exchange rate of the national currency at the beginning of September 2011, with the exchange rate floor of 1.20 CHF per euro. This decision of the Swiss National Bank many welcomed with skepticism and fear and considered controversial and unsustainable. The reason for setting the minimum exchange rate was to maintain the objective of price stability and competitiveness of the economy. In the following years the minimum exchange rate proved to be a positive solution consequently considered to remain the main tool of the monetary policy.

• Keywords: svjetska financijska kriza; Švicarska narodna banka; švicarski franak; ekspanzivna monetarna politika
• Keywords (english): global financial crisis; Swiss national bank; Swiss franc; Expansionary monetary policy
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:980669
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2016-10-07 09:51:43