Analiza sekularne stagnacije u eurozoni

master's thesis

• Title (english): Analysis of Secular Stagnation in the Eurozone
• Author: Ljubica Fučkar
• Mentor: Lucija Rogić Dumančić (mentor)
• Committee member: Tomislav Sekur (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Željko Bogdan (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Macroeconomics and Economic Development); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2019-09-13, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Macroeconomics

Abstract

Sekularna stagnacija je pojava koja je široko rasprostranjena u razvijenim gospodarstvima svijeta nakon završetka svjetske financijske krize, a opisuje ju niski ekonomski rast koji je godinama nakon krize ostao značajno ispod očekivane razine. Gospodarstvo eurozone je najviše od svih razvijenih gospodarstava bilo pogođeno sekularnom stagnacijom te se radom žele istražiti uzroci sekularne stagnacije i u kojoj mjeri je ona bila prisutna u eurozoni. Empirijska analiza provest će se upotrebom panel vektorskog autoregresijkog modela kako bi se utjecaj investicija, potrošnje te realne dugoročne i kratkoročne kamatne stope na bruto domaći proizvod mogao prikazati za odabranu skupinu zemalja koju čine zemlje jezgre i zemlje periferije eurozone. Na temelju provedene analize zaključuje se kako je sekularna stagnacija prisutna u eurozoni, ali da je ona prisutna samo u zemljama periferije, dok zemlje jezgre pokazuju značajan ekonomski oporavak koji je u nekim slučajevima iznad potencijalnog.

Abstract (english)

In aftermath of the world financial crisis a phenomenon of the secular stagnation is widely spread among developed economies as years after the crisis their economic growth stays significantly below the expectations. In whole developed world, the secular stagnation impacts the economy of the euro area the most so empirical work of this paper seeks to investigate the causes of the secular stagnation and its scale in euro area. An empirical analysis will be conducted using a panel vector autoregression model to show the impact of investment, private consumption and real long-term and short-term interest rate on the gross domestic product for the selected group of countries consisting of the euro area core and the periphery countries. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that secular stagnation is present in the euro area, but with great distinction between the euro area core and the periphery countries. The core countries show a significant economic recovery, which is in some cases above the potential, while the periphery countries are struggling with the problem of the secular stagnation.

• Keywords: sekularna stagnacija; eurozona; testovi jediničnog korijena; panel vektorski autoregresijski model; Grangerova uzročnost; funkcija impulsnog odaziva; dekompozicija varijance
• Keywords (english): secular stagnation; euro area; unit root tests; panel vector autoregression; Granger causality; impulse response function; variance decomposition
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:293318
• Study programme: Title: Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2019-09-14 08:17:05