POVEZANOST POLITIČKE STABILNOSTI ZEMALJA S CIJENOM NAFTE NA SVJETSKOM TRŽIŠTU

master's thesis

• Title (english): COHERENCE OF POLITICAL STABILITY AND INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICE
• Author: Kristina Povše
• Mentor: Ivana Štulec (mentor)
• Committee member: Tomislav Baković (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Mate Damić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Trade and International Business); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2020-09-29, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; International Economics

Abstract

Nafta je vrlo značajan resurs u gospodarskom i političkom smislu. Zbog svoje oskudnosti i široke primjene procijenjena je kao vrijedan resurs od strateške važnosti. Utjecaj brojnih čimbnika na kretanje cijene čini tržište kompleksnim i volatilnim. Predmet ovog rada je analiza povezanosti političke stabilnosti zemalja s cijenom nafte na svjetskom tržištu, odnosno jesu li svjetska politička zbivanja imala direktan utjecaj na kretanje cijene nafte. Cilj rada je objasniti fundamentalne čimbenike koji utječu na cijenu nafte, prikazati kretanje cijene nafte kroz povijest, te analizirati u kojoj mjeri politička stabilnost ima utjecaj na promijenu cijene nafte na svjetskom tržištu.
U radu se analiziraju sekundarni izvori podataka prikupljeni iz časopisa, istraživačkih radova i publikacija institucija. Za izračun stupnja korelacije korišten je Pearsonov koeficijent korelacije. Prilikom analiziranja korelacije između političke stabilnosti i cijene nafte kao kvantificiranu vrijednost političke nestabilnosti korišteni su The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) i World Uncertainty Index (WUI). Promatran period za indekse je od 1985.-2018. godine. Uz ukupnu vrijdnost GRP indeksa, anaiza je provedena i za podindekse The Geopolitical Acts Index (GPA) i The Geopolitical Risk Historical Indeks (GPRH) kao i za GPR indeks po odabranim zemljama koje uključuju Rusiju, Kinu, Saudijsku Arabiju, Meksiko, Brazil, Indiju, Venezuelu i Koreju. Provedena analiza potvrdila je određeni stupanj povezanosti između političke nestabilnosti i kretanja cijene nafte. Za ukupne vrijednosti indeksa jačina korelacije ovisi o opsegu korištenih podataka dok će za indekse na razini zemalja jačina korelacije ovisiti o ulozi na tržištu te većinskom vlasništvu proizvodnje i rezervi.

Abstract (english)

Oil is a very significant resource in economic and political terms. Due to its scarcity and wide application, it is assessed as a valuable resource of strategic importance. The influence of numerous factors on price movements makes the market complex and volatile. The subject of this paper is the analysis of the connection between the political stability of countries and the price of oil on the world market, ie whether world political events have had a direct impact on the movement of oil prices. The aim of this paper is to explain the fundamental factors influencing the price of oil, to show the movement of oil prices throughout history, and to analyse the extent to which political stability has an impact on changes in oil prices on the world market.
The paper analyses secondary data sources collected from journals, research papers and publications of institutions. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to calculate the degree of correlation between political stability and the oil price. The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) and the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) were used as a quantified value of political instability when analysing the correlation between political stability and oil prices. The observed period for the indexes is from 1985-2018. In addition to the total value of the GRP index, the analysis was conducted for the sub-indices The Geopolitical Acts Index (GPA) and The Geopolitical Risk Historical Index (GPRH) as well as for the GPR index by selected countries including Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Brazil, India , Venezuela and Korea. The conducted analysis confirmed a certain degree of connection between political instability and oil price movements. For total index values, the strength of the correlation depends on the volume of used data, while for country-level indexes, the strength of the correlation will depend on ownership of production and reserves.

• Keywords: nafta; politička stabilnost; čimbenici koji utječu na kretanje cijene nafte; korelacija između političke stabilnosti i cijene nafte
• Keywords (english): oil; political stability; factors influencing oil price movements; correlation between political stability and oil price
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:128031
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Created on: 2020-09-29 16:08:49