Održivost mirovinskih sustava u okolnostima sekularne stagnacije i demografskog starenja populacije

master's thesis

• Title (english): Sustainability of pension systems in the circumstances of secular stagnation and ageing population
• Author: Patricia Ivka
• Mentor: Jakša Krišto (mentor); MBZ: 286511
• Committee member: Jakša Krišto (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Finance); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-09-21, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Finance

Abstract

Sustav mirovinskog osiguranja važan je element sustava socijalne skrbi usmjeren na
smanjivanje rizika od siromaštva starije populacije. Uslijed suvremenih pojava sekularne
stagnacije i demografskog starenja stanovništva održivost istog postaje upitna. Pritom se
sekularna stagnacija odnosi na strukturni fenomen usporenog ekonomskog rasta odražavajući
se na kretanja najvažnijih makroekonomskih varijabli: stope rasta BDP-a, inflaciju i kamatne
stope. Dok demografsko starenje stanovništva izravno utječe na sustav međugeneracijske
solidarnosti, sekularna stagnacija ugrožava sustav individualne kapitalizirane štednje. Uz to,
trendovi su međusobno povezani obzirom da starenje populacije negativnim utjecajem preko
tržišta rada dovodi do nižih stopa ekonomskog rasta. Porast udjela starije populacije rezultirat
će rastom mirovinskih izdataka, a niže stope ekonomskog rasta uz niske kamatne stope
potencijalno mogu ugrozit solventnost poslovanja mirovinskih fondova, a posljedično i
ukupnu financijsku stabilnost. Slijedom toga neophodno je provođenje parametarskih i
strukturnih reformi u mirovinskim sustavima većine zemalja. U Hrvatskoj je također
neizbježna nadopuna i prilagodba mirovinske reforme iz 2002. aktualnim trendovima. Prvi
mirovinski stup koji počiva na sustavu međugeneracijske solidarnosti nužno je korigirati
povećanjem zakonske dobi umirovljenja. Radi unaprjeđenja sustava individualne
kapitalizirane štednje, prvenstveno drugog stupa mirovinskog osiguranja trebalo bi koristiti
potencijal domaćeg i inozemnog tržišta kapitala radi ostvarenja dostatnih prinosa, a potom
provesti i zakonsku fleksibilizaciju ulagačkih ograničenja obveznih mirovinskih fondova,
izbjegavajući korištenje obveznih mirovinskih fondova za financiranje proračunskog deficita.
Neizostavan element buduće reforme jest i kontinuiran rad na financijskoj pismenosti
stanovništva ne bi li se povećala osobna odgovornost pojedinca pri planiranju financijske
pozicije u budućnosti.

Abstract (english)

The pension insurance system is an important element of the social welfare system aimed at
reducing the risk of poverty of the elderly population. Due to the modern phenomena of
secular stagnation and demographic aging of the population, its sustainability becomes
questionable. Thereat secular stagnation refers to the structural phenomenon of slow
economic growth, reflecting the movements of the most important macroeconomic variables:
GDP growth rates, inflation and interest rates. While the demographic aging of the population
directly affects the system of intergenerational solidarity, secular stagnation threatens the
system of individual capitalized savings. In addition, the trends are interrelated as the aging of
the population through a negative impact through the labor market leads to lower rates of
economic growth. An increase in the share of the elderly population will result in an increase
in pension expenditures, and lower economic growth rates with low interest rates could
potentially jeopardize the solvency of pension fund operations and, consequently, overall
financial stability. Consequently, it is necessary to implement parametric and structural
reforms in the pension systems of most countries. In Croatia, it is also inevitable to
supplement and adapt the 2002 pension reform to current trends. The first pension pillar,
which is based on the system of intergenerational solidarity, needs to be corrected by
increasing the legal retirement age. In order to improve the system of individual capitalized
savings, primarily the second pillar of pension insurance should use the potential of domestic
and foreign capital markets to achieve sufficient returns, and then implement legal flexibility
of investment restrictions of mandatory pension funds, avoiding the use of mandatory pension
funds to finance budget deficits. An indispensable element of future reform is the continuous
work on the financial literacy of the population in order to increase the personal responsibility
of the individual in planning the financial position in the future.

• Keywords: Sekularna stagnacija; demografsko starenje; mirovinska reforma; financijska održivost
• Keywords (english): Secular stagnation; demographic ageing; pension reform; financial sustainability
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:203743
• Study programme: Title: Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2021-09-24 13:27:06