Nekonvencionalna fiskalna politika

master's thesis

• Title (english): Unconventional fiscal policy
• Author: Antonela Bilaver
• Mentor: Antonija Buljan (mentor); MBZ: 357734
• Committee member: Hrvoje Šimović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Antonija Buljan (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Maja Mihelja Žaja (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Finance); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-09-30, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Finance

Abstract

Pojava pandemije virusa COVID-19 uzrokovala je najoštriji i najdublji pad svjetskog gospodarstva od Velike recesije. Uz iscrpljene mogućnosti djelovanja monetarne politike, mnogi stručnjaci smatraju da fiskalna politika treba preuzeti glavnu ulogu u poticanju oporavka. Međutim, prostor za stimulativno djelovanje fiskalne politike ograničen je visokim postkriznim razinama javnog duga te niskim stopama potencijalnog rasta. Kao alternativa, razvio se novi model fiskalne politike, takozvana nekonvencionalna fiskalna politika. Nekonvencionalna fiskalna politika je neutralna za proračun, a temelji se na najavama budućeg povećanja potrošnih poreza, najčešće poreza na dodanu vrijednost (PDV-a), s ciljem generiranja inflacijskih očekivanja i ubrzanja rasta osobne potrošnje. Nekonvencionalnom fiskalnom politikom želi se djelovati na očekivanja ekonomskih subjekata koji se zbog većih inflatornih očekivanja u budućnosti, odlučuju za veću potrošnju danas, osobito trajnih dobara. Veća inflacijska očekivanja smanjila bi realne kamatne stope u vremenima fiksnih nominalnih stopa, a niže realne stope stimulirale bi potrošnju. Istraživanja koja su se provodila u državama, poput SAD-a, Japana, Njemačke i Poljske, pokazuju da se primjenom mjera nekonvencionalne fiskalne politike spremnost kućanstava na potrošnju povećala, pogotovo za kupnju trajnih dobara. Međutim, primjena ove politike u praksi još je relativna novost, te se pravi rezultati i analize njene učinkovitosti mogu tek očekivati.

Abstract (english)

The surge of COVID-19 pandemic has caused the steepest and deepest economic downturn since the Great recession. With limited possibilities for monetary policy, many experts stress that fiscal policy should take the lead role in the economic recovery. However, the space for stimulative fiscal policy is bound with high post-crisis levels of public debt and low rates of potential growth. As an alternative, a new model of fiscal policy was developed, the so-called unconventional fiscal policy. Unconventional fiscal policy is budget neutral, it uses announcements of future increases in consumption taxes, predominantly VAT, to generate inflation expectations and accelerate consumption expenditure. Unconventional fiscal policy aims to affect consumer expectations in the way that consumers decide to increase their consumption today in expectation of higher prices in the future, especially unperishable goods. Higher inflation expectations would reduce real interest-rates in times of fixed nominal interestrates, while lower real interest-rates would stimulate the demand. Research conducted in countries such as the US, Japan, Germany and Poland shows that the application of unconventional fiscal policy has raised households’ willingness to consume, especially durable goods. However, the use of this policy is still relatively new, the real effects and policy analysis of its effects are yet to be expected.

• Keywords: fiskalna politika; nekonvencionalna fiskalna politika; potražnja; potrošnja; inflacija; inflacijska očekivanja
• Keywords (english): fiscal policy; unconventional fiscal policy; demand; consumption; inflation; inflation expectations
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:731574
• Study programme: Title: Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to authenticated users
• Created on: 2021-10-13 12:09:25