Statistički modeli prognoziranja poslovnih prihoda na primjeru Atlantic Grupe d.d.

master's thesis

• Title (english): Statistical revenue forecasting models based on the example of "Atlantic Grupa d.d."
• Author: Anika Kožica
• Mentor: Mirjana Čižmešija (mentor)
• Committee member: Andrija Sabol (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Berislav Žmuk (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Managerial Economics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2022-09-19, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics

Abstract

Tema ovog diplomskog rada je istraživanje uloge i mogućnosti statističkih modela prognoziranja u prognoziranju poslovnih prihoda poduzeća na primjeru poslovnih prihoda poduzeća Atlantic Grupa d. d. Analizom literature na temu planiranja u poduzeću te na temu vrednovanja poduzeća utvrđeno je da prognoziranje ima veliku ulogu u ishodu tih procesa. Poduzeće Atlantic Grupa d. d. odabrano je za analizu kao lider u svojoj industriji te kao jedno od najvećih hrvatskih poduzeća s velikim brojem dionika zainteresiranih za njegovu perspektivu. Cilj istraživanja bio je utvrditi reprezentativni model za prognoziranje poslovnih prihoda Atlantika te je utvrđeno da je najbolji model za prognoziranje godišnjih prihoda od prodaje Atlantic Grupe Holtov model linearnog eksponencijalnog izglađivanja, a za prognoziranje na kvartalnoj razini najbolji je Holt-Wintersov aditivni model eksponencijalnog izglađivanja. Odabir modela iz skupine temeljnih prognostičkih modela na bazi vremenskog niza proveden je po kriteriju minimalnih prosječnih prognostičkih pogrešaka.

Abstract (english)

The focus of this paper is the role and possibilities of statistical models in forecasting sales revenues on the example of Atlantic Group d. d.’s revenues. By analysing literature focusing on business planning and company valuation it was concluded that forecasting plays an important role in the outcome of these processes. The Atlantic Group company was chosen for the analysis as one of the industry leaders and one of the biggest Croatian companies with many shareholders interested in its future prospects. The goal of the research was to find the representative model for forecasting Atlantic’s sales revenues and it was determined that the best model for forecasting annual incomes was Holt’s linear exponential smoothing, and if forecasts are made on a quarterly basis the best model is Holt-Winters’ additive model. The selection of models from the group of basic prognostic models based on the time series was carried out according to the criterion of minimum average prognostic errors.

• Keywords: statističko prognoziranje; planiranje; prodaja; vrednovanje poduzeća; eksponencijalno izglađivanje
• Keywords (english): statistical forecasting; planning; sales; company valuation; exponential smoothing
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:424300
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2022-09-19 09:59:53