Analiza scenarija kao temeljni instrument oblikovanja budućnosti

master's thesis

• Title (english): Scenario analysis as a fundamental tool of future planning
• Author: Karlo Kučko
• Mentor: Andrija Sabol (mentor); MBZ: 332914
• Committee member: Denis Dolinar (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Davor Zoričić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Managerial Economics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2019-09-24, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Economics of Entrepreneurship

Abstract

S razvojem svijeta u kojem danas živimo, a kojeg karakterizira visoka razina kompleksnosti, duga razdoblja neizvjesnosti i diskontinuiteta i turbulencija, javila se potreba za metodom koja će poduzećima pomoći u formiranju strategije kao instrument ostvarivanja budućnosti i prodora u budućnost. Analiza scenarija kao misaona metoda prodora u bližu ili daljnju budućnost služi poduzećima, organizacijama, domaćim i međunarodnim udrugama kao instrument oblikovanja budućnosti i upravljanju neizvjesnošću. Omogućava nam lakše razumijevanje trendova, pokretačkih snaga, kritičnih faktora uspjeha, lakše identificiranje ključnih nosioca promjena što dovodi do bolje pripremljenosti poduzeća na nepredviđene događaje i iznenadne krize. Osim identificiranje ključnih pokretača promjena, korisnost analize scenarija ogleda se i u procesu donošenja odluka, izazivajući donositelje odluka na promjenu poslovnog svjetonazora te na razmišljanje „izvan okvira“. Identifikacijom glavnih trendova, formira se set scenarija i njima pripadajućih strategija, pri čemu se preporučuje formiranje najvjerojatnijeg, pesimističnog i optimističnog scenarija kako bi poduzeće spremno dočekalo promjene koje će se neminovno dogoditi s ciljem osiguranja konkurentske prednosti vlastitog poslovanja.

Abstract (english)

With evolution of world in which we live today , characterized by a high level of complexity, long periods of uncertainty and discontinuity and turbulence, there is a need for a method that will help companies formulate a strategy as an instrument for achieving the future and forging ahead. Scenario analysis, as a thought-provoking method for breaking into the near or distant future, serves companies, organizations, domestic and international organizations as an instrument for shaping the future and managing uncertainty. It enables us to more easily understand trends, driving forces, critical success factors, more easily identify key drivers of change, leading to better preparedness for unforeseen events and sudden crises. In addition to identifying key drivers of change, the usefulness of scenario analysis is reflected in the decision-making process, challenging decision-makers to change their business worldview and to think "outside the box." By identifying major trends, a set of scenarios and related strategies is formed, and it is recommended that the most likely, pessimistic and optimistic scenario be formed in order for the company to readily anticipate the changes that will inevitably occur in order to ensure the competitive advantage of its own business.

• Keywords: scenarij; budućnost; neizvjesnost; strategije; poduzeća
• Keywords (english): scenario; future; uncertainty; strategies; companies
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:502523
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Reformatted digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2019-09-24 17:16:58