Utjecaj starenja stanovništva na hrvatski mirovinski sustav

master's thesis

• Title (english): The Impact of the Demographic Aging on the Croatian Pension System
• Author: Karla Periša
• Mentor: Ana Pavković (mentor)
• Committee member: Mihovil Anđelinović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Hrvoje Šimović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; (Department of Finance); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2022-05-31, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics; Finance

Abstract

Istraživanje u ovom radu provedeno je s temeljnim ciljem utvrđivanja osnovnih implikacija demografskog starenja na održivost postojećeg mirovinskog sustava. Hrvatsku demografsku sliku obilježavaju tri trenda koja iz godine u godinu sve više jačaju, a koji uključuju prirodnu depopulaciju, negativan migracijski saldo i starenje stanovništva. Ovi trendovi imaju snažan utjecaj na sve dimenzije socijalnog osiguranja, a posebno su izraženi kod svog utjecaja na mirovinski sustav. Naime, sve manji broj živorođenih ujedno znači da će u sljedećim generacijama doći do značajnog pada u priljevu mladog stanovništva u radni kontingent, a s druge strane, iz Hrvatske iz godine u godinu iseljava sve veća količina radno sposobnog stanovništva u potraži za poslom i boljim životnim uvjetima. Slijedom toga, dolazi do sve većeg smanjenja udjela osoba u dobi između 15 i 64 godine (radno sposobnoj dobi) u ukupnom stanovništvu. Istovremeno, pod utjecajem produljenja životnog vijeka ljudi, hrvatsko stanovništvo postaje sve starije, a duljina korištenja prava na mirovinu konstantno raste što stavlja sve veći teret na mirovinski sustav. Hrvatska je dosad prošla nekoliko mirovinskih reformi, a u pripremi je i nova jer trenutna situacija u kojoj se iz državnog proračuna namiruje čak 42% mirovinskih isplata, a 1,25 osiguranika radi za mirovinu jednog umirovljenika, dugoročno je neodrživa. Trend starenja stanovništva i produljenje životnog vijeka ljudi dodatno pogoršava situaciju jer se stvara sve veći pritisak na mirovinski sustav obzirom da se vremensko razdoblje korištenja prava na mirovinu iz godine u godinu povećava. Problem u Hrvatskoj je i činjenica da velik postotak radnika koristi pravo na odlazak u prijevremenu mirovinu, a mogućnosti ostanka na tržištu rada i nakon stjecanja prava na odlazak u mirovinu koristi izrazito nizak udio hrvatskog stanovništva i to do svoje 69. godine starosti. Suprotno tome, europska praksa je pokazala kako razvijene zemlje sve više potiču ostanak na tržištu rada i ova se mogućnost postavlja kao jedna od najistaknutijih opcija koja bi u budućnosti mogla biti sve češće korištena.

Abstract (english)

The research in this thesis was conducted with the fundamental goal of determining the basic implications of demographic aging on the sustainability of the existing pension system. Croatia's demographic picture is marked by three trends that are becoming stronger every year, which include natural depopulation, negative migration balance, and an aging population. These trends have a strong impact on all dimensions of social security, and they are particularly pronounced in their impact on the pension system. Namely, the decreasing number of live births also means that in the next generations there will be a significant decline in the influx of young people into the labor force, and on the other hand, from Croatia every year an increasing number of young people emigrate in search of work and better living conditions. Consequently, there is an increasing decrease in the share of persons aged between 15 and 64 (working age) in the total population. At the same time, under the influence of increasing life expectancy, the Croatian population is getting older, and the length of use of the right to a pension is constantly growing, which puts an increasing burden on the pension system. Croatia has undergone several pension reforms so far, and a new one is being prepared, because of the current situation in which as much as 42% of pension payments are settled from the state budget, and 1.25 insured persons work for the pension of one pensioner, is unsustainable in the long run. The aging population and the prolongation of people's life expectancy is further exacerbated by increasing pressure on the pension system as the period of exercising the right to a pension increases from year to year. Another problem in Croatia is the fact that a large percentage of workers use the right to early retirement, and the possibility of remaining in the labor market even after acquiring the right to retire benefits from a very low share of the Croatian population up to 69 years of age. In contrast, European practice has shown that developed countries are increasingly encouraging the elderly to stay in the labor market and this option is emerging as one of the most prominent options that could be used more and more in the future.

• Keywords: starenje stanovništva; demografski trendovi; mirovinski sustav; reforma
• Keywords (english): population aging; demographic trends; pension system; reform
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:128686
• Study programme: Title: Business Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: integrated undergraduate and graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access; Embargo expiration date: 2023-06-06
• Created on: 2022-06-04 09:10:43